Let’s say it. This is a much tighter, harder fought night that a lot of people thought. Joe Donnelly lost his seat in Indiana. Republicans have held Tennessee. It looks very tight in Florida and Republicans have the advantage in the Senate and Governor’s race. Democrats are still fairly well positioned to take the House. But it’s much more of a district by district slog than a wave. And there’s no guarantee as of 9:17 PM. A lot of counting to go.

9:25 PM: Here’s what the guy I follow in Florida says: “Florida Senate race is almost surely going to be in recount range. With what’s out in S FL, it should get very tight.”

9:31 PM: This has been a stressful night and we’ve already booked some key disappointments for the Democrats. But as of this moment Democrats appear to be booking the House victories they need for a majority in the House. I don’t mean they’ve won it. And it’s much closer than expected. But this is a district by district struggle now. And they’re – so far – getting the seats they absolutely need. Weirdly, it’s looking like Texas may net real pick-ups for the Dems.

9:42 PM: Perhaps this is stating the obvious. But the big take-away for tonight so far was that Democrats were energized but so were Republicans. That created big problems for Democrats in the Senate. And it at least limited Democratic gains in the House. Still a long way to go.

Lot of disappoints out of Florida tonight. But over a million felons regained their voting rights. Big big deal.

Let’s take a deep breath. We’re not looking at a wave election, if by that we mean a night when all the races fall in one direction. The Senate almost certainly remains in Republican hands. But we knew that. Democrats remain traumatized by the shock results from 2016. Tonight has had more than a few moments that recalled that trauma and disappointment. But Democrats are putting together the numbers of flipped seats they will need to take the House. That is critical. Take a deep breath. A lot more votes to count. Democrats absolutely need to get a hold of a foothold of power in Washington. They appear to be on the way to do that.

Kobach seems to have gone down to defeat in Kansas. Big big deal.

10:11 PM: A good pick up for Dems. Max Rose defeats Dan Donovan in NY-11.

10:16 PM: No call but starting to seem like Abigail Spanberger is going to pull this off. She’s up by more than 2,000 votes with over 98% reporting.

10:23 PM: Collin Allred appears to have defeated Pete Sessions in Texas. Major pick up for Democrats.

10:26 PM: With about 50% reporting, Tony Evers has a 50,000 vote or so lead over Scott Walker. Not clear to me what the internal county breakdowns are there. But that’s a nice lead with 50%+ in.

The Democrats are winning the House. This is the critical, critical result. Heartbreak in Florida and Georgia. But this is the critical thing for the future of the country.

New York State is looking very good for House Democrats.

NY-19: Delgado (55%), Faso (43%) with 38% in.

NY-22: Brindisi (53%), Tenney (47%) with 60% in.

Collins has been up and down, still a lot of results to go. Max Rose has already won the State Island district.

Look at the latest results in the map down to the right. Or you can go to this page.

LATE UDPATE: Delgago and Brindisi win, according to CNN call.

Let me revise an earlier point. In the House, this is looking like a Democratic wave. There’s no inherent meaning to these words. It’s about interpretation and judgment. But this isn’t a squeak through result for the Democrats. They’re winning a lot of seats and in a lot of different kinds of districts. CNN just called Tenney and Faso going down to defeat in New York. We still haven’t gotten to California where Democrats could pick up several more seats.

Still early. But we’re 41% of the vote in and Steve King is down by almost 6 points. Here’s the results page.

11:46 PM: King now has a 200 vote lead with 67% reporting.

Nets calls it for Spanberger, a key win, taking down a truly odious tea partier in what’s been a very Republican district.