Here is a New York Times article you may have seen. It describes the GOP’s panicked, hyperbolic and yet utterly ineffectual rush to stop the Donald Trump juggernaut. As I’ve said before, the GOP’s Trump problem reminds me of the regional and global powers’ efforts to destroy ISIS. Every party sees the problem, is terrified by the problem. And yet every player has some other angle or priority that’s just a bit more pressing or important. The Saudis, Iran. The Turks, the Kurds. The US, Assad. And on and on. Yet it goes without saying that Trump isn’t the real problem. He didn’t bamboozle the heads of the RNC into signing some one-sided contract they can’t live with. The problem is Republican voters. Look at the polls and you see that in virtually every state in the country between 30% and 50% of GOP voters currently back Trump. And only unicorn thinking supports the idea that the 70% to 50% who do not constitute some sort “anti-Trump” faction. That’s the problem, not Trump himself.
Hillary Clinton’s polling lead in South Carolina has been big enough that it would be a surprise for the networks not to call the race right at 7 p.m. ET, when polls close. And they’re pre-game coverage tonight is not doing much to conceal that fact. So stay tuned. Full results here.
The networks all called South Carolina for Hillary Clinton as soon as polls closed. Six in 10 Democratic voters today were African American, and the networks are describing her victory as overwhelming, which would be in line with the recent polling of the state. Full story here.
This has been crystallizing in my mind without my realizing it. And when I went back to Donald Trump’s Twitter feed it was more true than I realized. Trump doesn’t just tweet. He’s developed a sort of twitter-based, 140 character, insult haiku literary form. Not every one of his tweets follows the exact metrical progression. But most of them do. And those that don’t appear to be permutations or attempts at the model.
The metrical pattern is deceptively simple: Single clause declarative sentence, single clause declarative sentence, primary adjective/term of derision.
New CNN poll has Trump at 49% nationwide. Rubes at 16%, Cruz at 15%.
Cruz just now: “You don’t get to abuse and take advantage of American workers and then suddenly style yourself a champion for American workers.”
The Lt Gov of Texas, a Cruz surrogate, is on CNN right now arguing that all the other Republicans need to drop out and let Cruz fight Trump one on one because Cruz’s supporters would overwhelmingly go to Trump if Cruz drops out. So if Cruz gets out, Trump will automatically become the nominee.
So Cruz is the GOP’s only hope in stopping Donald Trump, because his supporters are natural Trump supporters.
Trying to make sense of what’s happened to the GOP over the last 96 hours? Here’s my explanation.
History is a funny thing. And generations seem always to look at each other across the divide of years with a mix of mutual ignorance, ‘splaining and efforts to justify their own cohorts’ priorities and impressions. But through the on-going debate over police violence and mass incarceration I’ve had the repeated experience of nodding in agreement with young activists and yet being surprised how quickly we forget the politics of the 1980s and 1990s. If this sounds like a middle-aged man lecturing the younger generation about not knowing how it was, well … at some level I obviously have to plead guilty. But just as youth always has the ability to look at the realities of the moment and not be blinded by the unattacked assumptions of the status quo, older folks do have some remaining ability to understand the dynamics of the past as eyewitnesses.
I’ve said this a few times before. But it is really too bad for the Republican party (and the United States) that Marco Rubio is simply too weak a reed for the task his increasingly desperate and confounded party has set out for him. I’m not sure whether Rubio or someone else could have gotten traction if they’d started launching these pretty obvious attacks sooner or whether they’ll start to resonate over next couple weeks. (I think there’s a decent chance they will; I just suspect it will be too late.) But as I said over the weekend, the simple truth is that Donald Trump is just better at this than Marco Rubio. A lot better.