Okay, I’m seeing people write some really wild stuff about today’s polls and the state of the race. And that’s putting it mildly. For myself, I don’t buy it. The first debate was clearly a major pivot point in the race. But all the data I’m seeing — including today’s Pew poll — are consistent with the idea that Romney got a solid bump out of the debate which then started to fade over the weekend. As I noted this morning, all the tracking polls seem to point to this conclusion.
Also remember, challengers generally have good showings in the first debate and the incumbent frequently underwhelms. That often leads to at least a near term gain in the polls for the challenger. Read More
I mentioned last night that contrary to the topline in the Pew poll, most data we have (actually including Pew) show Mitt Romney getting a sharp spike on Thursday and Friday which then tapered off or reversed over the weekend. ABC is out this morning with a favorability poll (no horse race number) which sees the same pattern. Read More
This is the kind of statement that works for the fact-checkers at WaPo, CNN, etc.
Mitt Romney: “So there’s no economist that can say Mitt Romney’s tax plan adds $5 trillion if I say I will not add to the deficit with my tax plan.”
Here’s my plan. It cuts rates by 20%. But I say I won’t add debt. So no economist can say my plan does if I say I won’t.
Makes sense, right?
Democratic pollster PPP shows a 6-point post-debate swing nationally, from Romney down 4 points to up 2 points.
Big movement among women voters in both of the new national polls that show Romney with a lead.
In today’s PPP poll, Obama’s lead among women drops from 15 points to 6 points compared to PPP’s last poll.
In yesterday’s Pew poll, Obama’s 18-point lead with women in the previous Pew poll dissolved into a tie.
Paul Ryan: Democrats’ strategy is to “call us liars“.
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) urges Democrats not to fall into the trap of the Simpson-Bowles model for tax reform.
Philip Klein says Gallup tells him that today they’re switching from registered voters to their ‘likely voter’ screen. That will likely shift the numbers in Romney’s direction.