I was just reading this Karl Rove piece that appeared yesterday in the Journal. In it Rove makes the case that Romney is the favorite to win the election next Tuesday. It’s a funny thing because not being a poll expert Rove’s arguments would make sense to me. He has various data that seems to hold up. Of course, I’m not totally wet behind the ears on these things. So I know a number of specifics points that he makes which are just wrong — either misleading and partial or, frankly, just totally false.
But on the big picture, what you hear nothing about in Rove’s argument is actual poll data. Actual state polls. There’s a heavy reliance on Gallup’s national numbers and various data points about early voting and crowd sizes and party ID. But actual polls? Not so much. Read More
With the aftermath of Sandy clear, Romney declares his love for FEMA.
Okay, not really. This afternoon Citizens United released a poll it commissioned from the GOP pollster Wenzel Strategies. It has Romney up by 3 in Ohio. You’ll note it pushed Ohio back into the Toss Up column on our scoreboard. This is simply our methodology. We include partisan pollsters, as long as basic internal demographics are within reasonable bounds and certain details about the poll are released.
But this poll doesn’t strike me as having much credibility. Here’s why. Read More
I don’t put much stock in endorsements, but it’s notable that the New York mayor — who declined to endorse anyone in 2008 — frames his endorsement of President Obama today around the issue of climate change.
There’s something more than vaguely ridiculous about the ‘news’ that Mike Bloomberg has endorsed Barack Obama. After all, Bloomberg is a Democrat. He was his entire life and a fairly major giver and only become a nominal Republican because of a very weird partisan politics of New York City. And he couldn’t even keep that up for very long as he eventually shed his nominal GOP affiliation and began running as an independent — as a matter of convenience and ballot position in 2009 he ran as a Republican again. Read More
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg joins us at 4 PM for a Live Chat about polls and in particular the issue of cell phone voters and whether they may still be undercounted in this cycles polling. Get your questions in now.
New GOP SuperPAC ad in Ohio calls on African-Americans to ditch Obama and vote Republican because Lincoln freed the slaves.
Today’s hot new polling charts on the big races and your daily check-in on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard.