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As you’ve probably seen already the topline exit poll numbers for a number of state have now been leaked. Virginia’s (tie) is now public. I’d made a decision that we weren’t going to publish leaked exits. But now that they’re out sort of no point not discussing them. The gist is that the first round exit polls show most of the key swing states at about exactly where the poll averages were. Ours, Pollster, 538, etc.
I’d really, really stress (and I doubt I need to say this to anyone who remembers 2004) these are preliminary numbers. They can and they will change. That said though the first wave of numbers show the swing state poll averages were really close to the mark.
Ummm … Initial exit polls suggest Virginia voters forgot to unskew their party ID before going to the polls today.
Some tantalizing numbers here for Obama supporters. But I need to stress the point that initial exit poll numbers are notoriously inaccurate. They’re all over the place. Just going to have to wait. Really. Put not ye faith in early exits.
Late Update: On the other hand, Dick Durbin says the exits are lookin’ pretty sweet. But seriously, take my word for it.
Yes, everything is very tentative. But the thing to look at right now is Florida and North Carolina. These two states are extremely close both in the exits and the trickle of actual results. The big deal though is that these two states are super, super close. Seemingly down to the wire. But Romney must win both states. If these are going down to the wire, that’s not a good sign for Romney.
Polls closed in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET, but with long lines at polling places around the state — and those already in line still legally entitled to vote — the state is delaying counting votes so as not to unduly influence those still waiting in line. Smart move.
The second round exit polls show a party ID number in Ohio similar to the polls: D +7. Early results etc, but those are the sorts of numbers that ‘unskewers’ said were wildly unrealistic.
Second record exit polls continue to look quite promising for President Obama.