Even before Mitt Romney hit that big pothole out West last night, he was already hitting a pretty bad trend in the probable national matchup coming this Fall. Just what’s driving it is not totally clear. Or rather, it’s not clear which of several probable culprits are most to blame. But it’s a good bet that it’s a mix of the Bain/tax rate issue, a series of gaffes and more than anything the perception of a rebounding economy and rising opinions of President Obama.

So let’s look at the numbers. For some time, President Obama has been running just a hair’s breadth ahead of Romney. But starting a little more than a week ago the two started separating and the current TPM Poll Average has President Obama with an almost 7 point lead over Romney, in other words a real lead. Read More

Benjy Sarlin surveys the career of GOP ad man Fred Davis. His is the mind behind the controversial “Chinese peasant” super bowl spot, not to mention many other all-time classics including the infamous “Demon Sheep” ad and Christine O’Donnell’s infamous “Witch” message.

House GOP goes all in to make political hay of the Obama administration’s contraception decision.

One of Congress’s top Islamophobes decides to leave Congress.

Fox News guests discover a new “nightmare” for New Yorkers: overpaid hotel maids.

Beware the marshmallow launcher at the White House science fair.

Today Mitt Romney is arguing that there were attacks from Rick Santorum this week that he didn’t get a chance to rebut — thus in some way explaining his three defeats on Tuesday night. But I see a different pattern. It’s not unusual for also-rans to opportunistically pick up a caucus here and there, even when there’s a more or less anointed frontrunner. And it’s true Romney didn’t campaign or spend aggressively in those states. But the frontrunner, already prepping for the incumbent, shouldn’t need to go full court press just to stave off resounding defeats at the hands of a palpably second or third tier opponent. It looks more like Mitt Romney — at least in this cycle — is a sort of electoral Bubble Boy, unable to exist in the natural political environment without a protective layer of massive SuperPAC spending.

Look at the story in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida and Tuesday’s contests. Each tells the same story.

Pro-choice Republicans flip out over their leadership’s latest stunt.

It’s the first day of CPAC and already its organizers are trying to work out how to avoid having their straw poll overrun by Ron Paul supporters. Meanwhile, you can follow TPM’s live coverage of the forum via our livewire.

Why Planned Parenthood knew it had to hit back hard when Komen pulled its funding.