It’s not exactly original to observe that this week feels like the start of 2012. But, original or not, today it feels well and truly upon us.

First, there’s the drama of Iowa’s Ames Straw poll. The results from that rather Tocquevillian affair should start coming in at around 6pm Eastern. You’ll be able to follow the developments throughout the day via our livewire.

Second, Texas Governor Rick Perry is ready to end his months-long tease and get in the race for real. His speech is expected around 1pm Eastern and you can watch it live here.

Lastly, if Perry doesn’t manage to oust GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney then the Dems have provided a timely little attack ad that gives a pretty clear preview of what we can expect on our TV screens throughout much of next year.

Just in case there were any doubts over whether Rick Perry was definitely going to declare his candidacy today, this new website should put them to rest:

http://www.rickperry.org/news/why-im-running

Meanwhile, watch his launch speech live, here.

Well, it’s now officially official: Perry’s in.

Here’s an article by TPM’s Benjy Sarlin that captures the swagger of the Ames-upstaging launch, and highlights some issues that could trip up the Texas Governor.

Meanwhile, follow the highlights from the colorful carnival that is the Ames Straw Poll via our livewire.

All eyes are on Ames today. Except all the eyes on Rick Perry’s announcement in the aptly picked state of South Carolina. But wherever you point your eyes we’re now getting into the first real round of winnowing in the Republican presidential field. And absent some surprising development, what it looks like is that we have three real candidates in the race. Two plausible nominees, Mitt Romney and Rick Perry (though I think the jury’s more out on Perry than we might know), and one favorite of the fire-breathers, Michele Bachmann, who would appear to stand zero chance of securing the nomination (let alone the presidency) but could pull more than enough votes to play a pivotal role in the unfolding primary process and debate.

But watching Fox News’s coverage today reminded me of another primary which may be as important as New Hampshire or South Carolina in the GOP nominating process: the Murdoch primary. Read More

As you know, Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota (2003-2011), has gone from top tier candidate in the Republican nomination battle to just holding on for dear life with polls in many states that make him indistinguishable from the Santorums and McCotters and Cains of the field. But remember, Pawlenty’s strategy in recent months is one that allows for these awful numbers. At least for a while. Read More

The much-hyped, over-covered, largely meaningless, and poorly predictive Ames straw poll results should be coming in around 6 p.m. ET. We’ll have ’em for you, along with a pinch of salt.

Looks like Michele Bachmann has prevailed in the Ames straw poll, an early though not necessarily determinative assessment of each campaign’s organizational abilities.

Here’s the initial breakdown: Bachmann 28.55%, Paul 27.65%, Pawlenty 13.57%.

No surprise that Ron Paul did so well. And no surprise to anyone who’s been following the Iowa race closely that Bachmann won — but step back for a minute and consider how mind-blowing it would have been even six months ago, let alone a year or two back, to think of Michele Bachmann as a major contender for the GOP nomination, arguably the frontrunner now in Iowa. It truly boggles.

The Mitt Romney camp will point out over and over that he didn’t compete in Iowa so don’t read too much into the Ames results. But the reason he didn’t compete was because trying to win and failing spectacularly was considered more damaging than preemptively conceding. The bottom line is Romney threw in the towel because he knew he was doomed.

A lot of the analysis (a generous term considering the peculiar nature of this straw poll) will focus on how damaging a third place finish is to Tim Pawlenty, whose early strategy — before Bachmann entered the race — had been to dominate his neighboring Iowa and carry that momentum into South Carolina. But Romney’s prospects here are so dim that he just bailed altogether.

I still have trouble seeing what the Romney strategy is. Concede Iowa. Win in neighboring New Hampshire which everyone will discount. And then win in uber-conservative South Carolina? It never has added up.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty could not survive a poor third-place showing in the Ames straw pool or the entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry into the race — but if those were the immediate causes of his collapse, the root causes had been evident for quite some time: anemic fundraising, a weak campaigner, and a guy who couldn’t throw enough red meat to GOP primary voters.

A preview of tomorrow morning’s feature story: how Rick Perry’s vaccine push sparked a backlash on the right and the left.