We’re getting the first early results out of Kentucky this evening. See the latest results on our election scoreboard below the feature on the right.

Gov. Rendell tells Christina Bellantoni the rain in Philly was “not good” for Specter.

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but in very early returns in the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky, Trey Grayson is losing his home county of Boone to Rand Paul. Grayson has 532 votes, 34 percent, to Paul’s 1,014 votes, 64 percent (5 of 60 precincts reporting).

Late Update: Boone County returns are now completely in: Paul carried Grayson’s home county 67-31.

The AP and the cable nets are calling the Republican Senate primary in Kentucky for Rand Paul.

8:11 PM: Polls are closed in PA. Waiting for results.

8:19 PM: Thumb twiddling.

8:20 PM: Seems pretty clear that Rand Paul isn’t just winning but absolutely crushing the ill-fated Trey Grayson. I don’t really know enough about Kentucky politics to say what it means. But one reader notes that there are substantially more people voting in the Kentucky Democratic primary than on the Republican side. Conway is ahead now 48% to 40% over Mongiardo with about half the vote in.

8:26 PM: The Tea Party candidate (Todd Lally) has apparently beaten the NRCC’s chosen Republican (Jeffrey Reetz) in the KY-3 primary to face John Yarmouth.

8:30 PM: We’ll know soon enough but sounding like rain in Philly may really have done Specter in PA. Of course, it’ll have to be pretty close for that to have mattered.

8:32 PM: On higher Dem turnout in Kentucky, I was wondering whether registrations might still lean Dem in Kentucky, despite the state now being a strong Republican state. Apparently that’s what it is, according to Chuck Todd.

8:34 PM: Starting to get the first trickle of returns out on Pennsylvania. Watch them with me at the top of our election scoreboard, just below the feature over on the right column of the site.

8:41 PM: How about that Souder guy?

8:46 PM: Remember, as a general matter, Specter has to really clean up in Philly to be in this thing. So that’ll be the key early tell.

8:48 PM: Rand Paul now rhapsodizing about Tea Party movement. Now explaining why Obama is pal of third world radicals. CNN producer tweets: “Rand Paul’s victory party isn’t a Tea Party rager. Appears to be mostly his friends and supporters from the community and country club.”

9:03 PM: CNN just went to Larry King with hourlong interview with Mick Jagger. I admit it was hard not to insist we stay on that.

9:11 PM: Maybe Specter is still in this thing. Most of the chatter of the day has talked in terms of low turnout which most figure would be bad for Specter. But now it’s seeming like those predictions of low turnout were wrong or perhaps that there was a late surge of turnout.

9:22 PM: Note the results so far in the Dem Senate primary in Arkansas (on our scoreboard to the right). Lincoln has to get over 50% to clinch this tonight and avoid a runoff.

9:27 PM: Helpful map of results so far in PA.

9:36 PM: Down to a 2 point spread in PA-Sen race with 28% reporting.

9:40 PM: We’re now getting a clearer view of the terrain in PA-SEN. And the upshot seems to be that Specter racked up a good margin in Philadelphia. But Sestak is doing well enough pretty much everywhere else that he’s looking like the winner. Way to early to call it. But that’s how it’s looking at this moment.

9:55 PM: Judy Miller resurfaces as elections commentator on Fox. Huh.

9:57 PM: As I noted earlier, remember that in the Arkansas Senate primary Blanche Lincoln’s real opponent isn’t so much Bill Halter as it 50%+. And right now she’s a few points shy.

10:00 PM: Sestak ahead of Specter by 2 with 40% of the vote in.

10:03 PM: And now it’s 4 points.

10:04 PM: The margin is still close with less than 50% of the votes in. But if you look at the map, it doesn’t seem like Specter has enough places left to find the votes to catch up. Too much of the vote has already come in in Philly. And Sestak’s doing well in Pittsburgh area.

10:09 PM: Now that the PA-SEN race seems pretty clear, check out PA-12, down at the bottom of our scoreboard. That’s Jack Murtha’s old district. About a third of the vote in, and the Dem Critz is kicking the Republicans butt. Now, a lot of the Republicans’ big areas haven’t reported in yet. But that’s a big margin. And if the Dems can hold on to that seat — which is a classic swing district (went for Kerry, went for McCain) with a cultural tinge that should be difficult for Dems this year — that’s going to be a big deal.

10:13 PM: They’re calling it. Sestak wins. So far it’s just AP, and they’ve had some whoppers in the past. But I suspect we’ll hear others momentarily.

10:21 PM: Specter speaking. Choking up.

10:42 PM: Specter tweets: “Congratulations, Congressman Sestak. You have my support for the general election.”

In the PA-12 special election for the late Jack Murtha’s House seat, Republican Tim Burns has reportedly conceded defeat to Democrat Mark Critz.

Tomorrow and for a while now, Republicans and especially Democrats are going to be taking a very close look at what happened in the special election to replace the late Rep. Jack Murtha, where the Democrat Critz (a longtime aide to Murtha) beat the Republican Burns by a substantial though not overwhelming margin. We’ve had a lot of special elections over the last couple years but most have been in district’s heavily weighted toward one party or another. But this is a genuine swing district.

Though Murtha held it for like forever, it was the only district in the country that went for John Kerry in 2004 and John McCain in 2008. (Right? What’s that about?) So it’s a district that can go both ways.

Now there are a lot of caveats here. Critz ran away from the president on Health Care Reform and he was definitely not wedding himself to the national party. And since a Democrat had held it for more than a generation, you can’t say it’s a slamming victory for the Dems. But Dems are going to be happy right now with a lot less than slamming victories. But what it does show is that even a swing district, with a culturally conservative electorate, a Dem can win.

There are a lot people in Washington today who think any Dem who’s not in a really safe seat isn’t safe. And they may be right. But a lot of Dems are going to look at this and say, okay, this guy managed to do it. And Republicans will look at the same result and realize that even with the wave, the candidate still has to win it. It’s not automatic.