If Blanche Lincoln’s tough derivatives provision was just a gimmick to ward off her primary challenger from the left and if the plan all along was to gut the provision once she made it through the primary, then Lincoln and Dodd and whoever else hatched this plan are now in an exquisite squeeze. Read More

We came into the day expecting a vote at 2 p.m. ET to end debate on the financial reform bill, an opportunity for opponents to filibuster and a test of whether the 60 votes to proceed are really there. But things began unraveling yesterday, and that vote has been delayed. Instead, Senate Democrats will hold a special caucus meeting at 2:15 ET, presumably to hash out which remaining amendments get a vote, when the cloture vote will be rescheduled and whether the votes are there. Stay tuned …

Late Update: Brian Beutler reports from the Hill that Harry Reid says he’s still confident he has or can get the 60 votes needed to end debate on the bill, though I think that’s a bit of gamesmanship because if he had the votes they wouldn’t be holding a special Democratic caucus meeting right now. The purposes of the meeting: figure out how to appease Sens. Cantwell, Merkley, Levin, et al who want votes on their amendments, or, more challengingly, figure out a way to convince Republicans to stop blocking votes on those same amendments. Who will give, Republicans or Senate progressives? More soon …

After Sen. Bob Bennett got defeated for renomination at the Utah state GOP convention, I think most people figured he’d just go quietly into that good political night. His initial response seemed to signal defeat and resignation rather than defiance. But now he’s hinting that he may try to keep his seat with a write-in campaign. He suggests he’ll be announcing his intentions as soon as tomorrow.

Ouch. Sue Lowden tries to wriggle free of Chickenomics in this painfully must-see video.

Thanks to the Mark Foley and Eric Massa scandals, we’ve clearly got a new standard on the Hill for how leadership ought to deal with rumors, reports, or hints of inappropriate conduct by Members: run as fast as you can to the ethics committee and relieve yourself of the burden of your knowledge. Only in that way can you inoculate yourself from accusations of cover up, complicity or conspiracy. Read More

I was finding it kind of hard to believe that a Democrat would really have a chance to win a Senate seat in Kentucky in 2010. But Rand Paul has some positions that probably won’t wear well even in Kentucky — being against the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Americans with Disabilities Act and supporting abolishing the Department of Education. TPM’s Evan McMorris-Santoro talks to Jack Conway, the new Democratic nominee, about how he plans to make his case against Paul.

Form Brian Beutler’s latest report from Capitol Hill …

Sen. Scott Brown acknowledged tonight that he did indeed tell Majority Leader Harry Reid he’d support financial reform legislation, before voting to filibuster at the last minute. But he says he’s confident he’ll ultimately side with the Democrats, and suggested he may switch his vote back to yes as early as tomorrow.

Read the rest here.

The state of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary, with the most recent overnight snap poll released today.

(For a full-sized graph, click the TPM logo at the lower left.)

I’m not sure if it’s case of him calling off the dogs so much as having the dogs unleashed on him. Either way, Democrats quickly coalesced yesterday around Attorney General Jack Conway as the nominee for U.S. Senate in Kentucky, so Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo called off his demand for a recanvass, which seems appropriate since Mongiardo had already conceded on election night.

The verdict on last’s night state dinner at the White House: no gate-crashers! That and the day’s other political news in the TPMDC Morning Roundup.