The Senate will hold a cloture vote on the Obama tax cut deal starting around 3 p.m. ET. This is not the final vote, but it’s the key procedural vote. The bill is expected to get the 60 votes needed to cut off debate and proceed to a final vote later in the week.

A year ago, no one took seriously the idea that a federal health care mandate was unconstitutional. And the idea that buying health care coverage does not amount to “economic activity” seems preposterous on its face. But the decision that just came down from the federal judgment in Virginia — that the federal health care mandate is unconstitutional — is an example that decades of Republicans packing the federal judiciary with activist judges has finally paid off.

Late Update: A number of readers have taken issue with my saying that “no one” took this idea seriously. It would probably be better to say that very few experts on constitutional law thought there was much chance that the law could be successfully challenged on constitutional grounds. Some chance, but not much. And I think that is unquestionably true. The mainstreaming of this argument over the last 12 to 18 months is little short of remarkable. One of the many signs of this — though not specifically tied to the Courts — is the way that more than a few Republican senators who were on the record supporting the mandate approach have now gone on record saying they believe the mandate approach in fact violates the constitution. Here’s a good run-down of the evolution from a piece we published back in March.

What doesn’t get enough attention in difficult political times is that failure breeds weakness and vice versa in what can be an acute and debilitating cycle. We know this. But we forget this. A Democratic president can’t win without the base? Or is it without the independents? Well, obviously it’s both. And winning politicians finds terrain on which to engage their political opponents where such ungainly coalitions are manageable.

Again, all obvious. But even knowing all this and with all the policy particulars having their importance, some things are critical to leadership that are more personal and intangible. Look at President Obama today and the guy just doesn’t have his swagger. The confidence is gone. And so is the smile. That’s human, I guess. It’s been a rough year. And like other presidents you can see the age on this president after only a couple years. Read More

I’ve noticed more than a few emails from supporters of a single payer health care plan expressing a sliver of guilty delight that at least one judge has found the individual mandate in the health care bill to be unconstitutional. And there’s no doubting the irony. The Democrats passed what is in many ways a moderate conservative approach to financing and regulating universal health care access and the conservative jurists and basically the entire conservative movement now says this approach is unconstitutional. Irony, to put it mildly. But I think folks have another thing coming if they think that the mandate going down is going to suddenly make single payer more viable than it’s been in the past.

Virginia AG Ken Cuccinelli takes his health care lawsuit victory lap. Watch it.

Just to remind everyone: the judge who declared part of the Health Care law unconstitutional today? He’s a part owner of a GOP consulting firm that among other things represents Boehner, Bachmann, McCain and others who’ve spent the last two years arguing that reform was unconstitutional.

It’s not the holiday season without the Golden Duke Awards, TPM’s homage to the year’s best purveyors of public corruption, outlandish behavior and The Crazy. This is fourth annual installment of the Golden Dukes! Thanks to the Tea Party there’s no shortage of potential honorees this year. (See last year’s winners here.) Nominations are due no later than Friday, December 17, 2010.

This year’s categories are: Read More

So is it a problem that Judge Henry Hudson, the Virginia-based federal judge who struck down part of the Health Care Reform law today, is part owner of a GOP consulting firm which spent the last year attacking the Health Care law? Narrowly speaking he’s probably in the clear since the firm is not a direct party to the case. But he’s “treading very close to the line,” one judicial ethics and recusal expert tells TPM.

Very sad news to report. According to NYT and ABC, Amb. Richard Holbrooke has died.

Steele says he’s running to head the RNC for another two years.