Some good New Hampshire analysis of what’s at stake and what’s happening in the primary from Tom Edsall at Huffpo.

Zogby’s first New Hampshire tracking poll with post-Iowa numbers is out. With yesterday’s numbers added to the three-day rolling poll, Obama gained two pecentage points and Hillary stayed steady, suggesting perhaps that Hillary is holding her own but that Obama is picking up supporters from the second tier and now out of it candidates. She still holds a four point lead, with Edwards pretty far back in third. On the GOP side, McCain loses two percentage points, and clings to a two point lead over Romney. Huckabee gains two but remains a distant third.

Despite considerable speculation yesterday in the hours after her third-place Iowa finish that Hillary would have no choice but to go negative to salvage a victory in New Hampshire, her campaign has apparently decided not to go that route.

Here’s the latest from Rasmussen:

Obama 37%
Clinton 27%

McCain 31%
Romney 26%

Bill O’Reilly reportedly shoves Obama staffer at New Hampshire rally, and Secret Service steps in.

TPM Reader JV checks in from Nashua

The Obama rally at Nashua North High School at 10AM this morning is right down the street, so I went to see him.

I didn’t get there until just before 10, and the place was jammed. I had to park in a church lot a half mile away. This is a new High School, with what must be the largest gym in the state. It was full to overflowing. The picture attached was the line waiting to get in a little after 10. The line extends as far back in the other direction too.

Shortly after I took this photo, the line stopped for several minutes. When it started moving again, it was to let us into the “secondary gym” (which is about as large as most high school primary gyms) and they filled that one too. So we didn’t get to see Obama, but we did get to hear him. When he finished, he briefly popped into our room to thank us for coming out. (video below)

I’ve lived in NH for 27 years now. I’ve never seen a candidate pull crowds anything like this. Shortly after Obama started, he asked how many undecideds were in the room, and (from what I was told later by people that we in the main gym) there was a fairly good number that raised their hands. He talked for 30-35 minutes, and he was good. He talked about hope. He took on all the points that Hillary is hitting him on (lack of experience etc). (One of his best lines was something like “they want me to stew for a while until all the hope has boiled off”.) I suspect he convinced a lot of those people that were on the fence.

this is how much we actually saw of him in the room we were in:

Pics of the O’Reilly scuffle with the Obama staffer.

You can’t tell much, except he looks just as obnoxious away from the studio lights.

Elizabeth Edwards deplores lack of media coverage of John’s second place finish in Iowa.

We’re starting to get a feel now for how the Democratic race is playing out in New Hampshire after Obama’s big win Thursday night in Iowa.

A second New Hampshire poll taken after the Iowa caucus is just out. The American Research Group poll, taken yesterday and today, shows Obama up by 12 over Hillary. The other purely post-Iowa poll, from Rasmussen, shows Obama up 10.

We also have two new three-day tracking polls out today, both of which just have one day of post-Iowa numbers, but already show a move toward Obama. The Zogby tracking poll still has Hillary ahead of Obama, but he cut her lead in half on the strength of Friday’s numbers. The Suffolk University tracking shows Hillary’s lead over Obama cut from 12 points to 7 points with the addition of the Friday numbers.

Taken together, things are looking very good for Obama. Will Hillary hit the panic button and go negative? So far, she hasn’t.

Ken Baer tries to figure out: What can Hillary Clinton do to stop Barack Obama?