Democrats will be caucusing on the Vegas Strip Saturday, a Nevada court rules.
We get an extended take on the GOP race from TPM Reader AB:
Based on the numbers at Pollster.com, it would seem that in just about every state Rudy is shedding voters faster than you (or he) can say â9/11â. How are all these ex-rudites breaking? Rudyâs affinity groups seem to me to be militarists, secular/socially liberal republicans (ie, donât care so much about abortion flip flops or shag) and the generally uninformed who respond to pollsters âRudyâ based on a vague memory of him somehow being a hero in the 9/11 attacks.
It would seem that the secular/socially liberal set would tend to break Romney, who also has shown inexcusable tolerance in the past. Militarists I see primarily going McCain. Romney talks a âgoodâ game on muscular executive power but doesnât have the warmongering rep of someone who actually dropped bombs on a country. Finally, the generally uninformed are a bit of a wild card as there is always the danger that they actually start paying attention and vote with their more informed affinity. McCain probably has the initial advantage with this set due to higher name recognition but that advantage is rapidly eroding.
McCain is the big winner from the Rudy collapse, and may become the nominee due, as Homer Simpson said: âthe two best words in the English language: âDe Fault.” My bet however is on Huckabee. He has the advantage of actually seeming to attract people rather than just pick up lifeboats from other campaigns. Plus, as his name recognition improves in each state the generally uninformed will gravitate towards his friendly demeanor. If he can manage to increase his ratings with the militarists without losing too much of the Heart in Huckabee, he has a fairly good chance to win it.
On the other hand, If Rudy were to pull out sooner rather than later and threw his remaining supporters to McCain or Romney then that could very well seal it up for either. Thus there is a possible silver lining for Rudyâs disastrous campaign: the chance to become a king maker of sorts. Will it be enough to attract shag and swag post campaign? I donât know, but pulling out now canât possibly be worse than the embarrassment of losing in New York, not to mention losing almost everywhere to the black sheep Ron Paul.
Last night on Fox, the President abandoned all pretense in dismissing the Iran NIE:
(h/t to Think Progress)
It’s actually kind of sad seeing Dennis Kucinich stooping so low as to bamboozle his devoted followers. I suppose there are many reasons to love Dennis Kucinich. And yet poll leader is really not one of them. Admittedly he has consistently outpolled Mike Gravel. But I’m pretty sure he hasn’t outpolled any of the other Democrats in the race. Nor should we forgot that that tally includes public support powerhouses like Sens. Dodd and Biden. And yet in the last few days we’ve started getting a steady stream of emails from Kucinich supporters asking why we don’t publish the polls where Kucinich is in the lead. In fact, one reader said that all the polls she’s seen have Dennis in the lead and we’re no better than the MSM for keeping them secret.
So I asked one of the emailers what the deal was and I was directed to this section of the Kucinich website entitled “The polls you may have missed.”
Says the site …
Time after time after time, Democratic Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich has topped every other candidate in major polls that the major media have either downplayed, dismissed or ignored completely. So, for the benefit of anyone who wonders about the strength and depth of Dennis’s support all across the country, take a look for yourselves.
Needless to say the polls are bogus website ‘polls’ where anybody can vote a million times, not ‘polls’ as the term is understood in the reality-based universe.
So, for the record, we are not censoring news about Kucinich being in the lead for the nomination. These are not real polls. Admittedly, we have done our best to squelch news about the Kucinich surge. But we’re always by the books with reporting polls.
Not sure what he heard or what he was told or who got on his case, but Chris Matthews just gave one of the weirdest, ‘I’m for the little guy’, ‘I love politics’, ‘women rock’ half-defensive, half contrite apologies I’ve heard in some time in the lead in to Hardball just now. It was for his recent claim that Hillary only got where she is today because Bill cheated on her.
And here it is …
Late Update: In case you missed what the apology was about, it’s this video from last week …
Don’t look now but Mike Huckabee has pulled even with John McCain in the GOP South Carolina primary with just two days to go.
TPM reader AM ponders Rudy’s future …
I’ve seen some discussion of the effect of this election on Rudy’s
consulting business, but recall that he was also making big bucks on the
motivation/inspiration seminar circuit. In fact, that’s why he was unable
to attend 9/11 commission meetings (irony noted). I wonder, given how he’s
run his primary campaign, how much demand there will be for him in that
arena in the future.
The LA Times picks up on a pivot point between the Obama and Clinton candidacies:
Barack Obama has warned about the dangers of gambling — that it carries a “moral and social cost” that could “devastate” poor communities. As a state senator in Illinois, he at times opposed plans to expand gambling, worrying that it could be especially harmful to low-income people.
Today, those views are posing a problem for Obama in the gambling mecca of Nevada, which holds its presidential nominating caucuses Saturday. While his top rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, also talks often about aiding low-income Americans, she has embraced the gambling industry and its executives, and her campaign has used Obama’s past statements in an effort to turn casino workers and other Nevada voters against him.
The split on gambling between the Democratic rivals is a little-noticed but meaningful development that could affect the caucus vote Saturday and the broader election â¦
U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the number three U.S. diplomat, is expected to step down for personal reasons in an announcement to be made on Friday, a U.S. official said.