Disgraced former Majority Leader Tom DeLay: “McCain has done more to hurt the Republican party than any elected official I know of.”
Special thanks to TPM Reader SB for the tip.
As I mentioned earlier, the whole TPM crew is going to be working tomorrow, bringing you the results as they come in from the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary (the Dems hold theirs next Saturday). And the race I’m most interested in is the South Carolina primary.
We have the final polls listed here.
The gist is that McCain has been in the lead in the last 16 polls released. McCain jumped into the lead right after New Hampshire. But the trend clearly seems to be swinging back to Huckabee.
Late Update: One final poll from ARG out late this evening has Huckabee vaulting ahead of McCain. From a poll taken just two days before it has Huckabee picking up ten points and McCain dropping 7 — for a final Huck 33%, McCain 26% tally. ARG has, it must be said, a really bad record of predictions so far this year. But my take away from this is less the absolute number than the shift in Huckabee’s direction — something found in a number of polls over the last two or three days. Another factor is the weather, which is supposed to be downright terrible tomorrow. Depending on where you are it will either be snowing or pouring cold rain. There’s really no way to know what that does or who it helps. But the conventional wisdom is that it helps Huckabee whose supporters, the state’s evangelical voters, are more impassioned and enthusiastic.
John Zogby has his final numbers out for South Carolina. And things are looking really good for Mike Huckabee. As I noted last night, John McCain has been leading all the polls since New Hampshire. But the final few days have shown a swing back toward Huckabee. And this final survey shows the same trend. Zogby’s poll yesterday had McCain at 29% and Huckabee at 22%. Today’s has it McCain 27% and Huckabee 26%.
Needless to say that still has McCain slightly ahead. And these movements are within the margin of error. However, this same trend has shown up in several separate surveys. And the two final ones both show Huck either pulling even or moving ahead.
The pattern in each of these races has been for the candidate with the momentum at the end to overshoot his or her numbers. So, as I said, this could be a good night for Huckabee. And if Huckabee wins it’ll leave the Republican race in even more of a mess than it already is.
Cry me a river.
From TPM Reader TK …
I live in Spartanburg, SC (the upstate) and drove around to look at a couple of polling spots in our area this morning. They were absolutely dead. One or two cars at each place. If you didn’t know there was an election going on, you’d never be able to tell driving by: no signs, no campaign workers, no voters. So far the weather isn’t bad. It is cold and rainy, but no sleet or snow in the upstate as of noon. Plenty of folks were at the grocery store and my daughter’s basketball game this morning so the weather is not keeping people inside.
Just about everyone is projecting Mitt Romney will win the Nevada caucus, based on entrance polls.
At this point, just after 1 p.m. ET, no actual vote tallies have yet been reported.
The GOP results in Nevada are trickling in, as you can see to the right there.
The Democratic caucus there just got underway at the top of the hour. Results won’t start coming in for at least an hour–maybe closer to two. But this is new for Nevada, so the exact timetable is yet to be determined.
Greg Sargent is blogging the results as they come in over at Election Central.
Keep checking back. We’ll bring you the latest.
A Release out from the McCain campaign South Carolina State Director Buzz Jacobs …
“We have received reports from Horry County that voters are being turned away from the polls, because electronic voting machines are not working and paper ballots are not available. Some voters say they are being instructed to return at a later time. We are disturbed by these reports and hope that this issue is resolved immediately. We encourage any voters who were turned away from the polls to return again to their polling place this afternoon to exercise their constitutional right to vote.”
NBC is reporting that Hillary Clinton had a “significant lead” in the initial preference in Nevada, according to the entrance polls.
But remember, Nevada operates like Iowa. Candidates have to reach a viability threshold of their supporters must either opt out or choose another candidate. Edwards has dropped pretty low in the late polls. So where his supporters go is a significant wildcard.
CNN has just posted the Dem entrance polls.
On their face they show a very strong showing for Hillary. And the breakdown of demographics strikes me as stunning on age and gender.
Male 42%, Female 58%. On age, 68% are over 45. 36% over 60.
If earlier contests are any indicator, that’s really bad news for Obama.
We’ve gotten an unconfirmed report that these numbers do not include those controversial casino strip caucus locations. We’re trying to confirm that as we speak.