The big dramatic tension at the moment is whether this incredibly ponderous Fred Thompson is in the process of giving a dropping out speech. Fox was sticking with it. But then Fred wouldn’t get to the point. So for a while they cut away for something else.

Late Update: He finished without saying one way or another whether he was out. But the tone and tense of the speech made it pretty clear he’s done.

Don’t Get Much Later for Fred Update: Not surprisingly, Fred’s campaign is sending out signals that he’s packing it in.

A lot of readers have pointed out that the upcountry areas where Huckabee should be strong either hadn’t reported yet or were just starting to. But according to this page, more than a third of Greenville County has now reported in and it’s tied 27%-27% between Huck and McCain. If Huckabee isn’t even winning there, that can’t be a good sign.

Late Update: Had just posted this when I saw John King talking about this on CNN. And he pointed a key issue in Greenville — the normally somnolent Fred Thompson has 18% in Greenville. So it seems Thompson may have provided a critical assist to McCain by splitting the evangelical vote and keeping Huck’s number down to 30% or less.

AP, FOX, CNN Calling it for McCain.

Rudy in South Carolina: 2%.

Ron Paul: 4%.

TPM Reader RS: “Is it possible that Huckabee insulted South Carolina voters with his comments? ‘Shucks, I’m a hick, just like you’ might not be the best way to introduce yourself to an electorate.”

I think I thought he was already out.

For my part, I would have vastly preferred to see Mike Huckabee win this thing tonight. But McCain’s victory tonight does set us up to get an answer to an important question: just how much enmity is there for John McCain among base Republican voters?

A few days ago, Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show that “we” find John McCain “unacceptable.” Yesterday the disgraced former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay said that “McCain has done more to hurt the Republican party than any elected official I know of.”

I don’t know how much juice DeLay has among Republicans these days. But as big a buffoon as he may be, I think having Rush Limbaugh saying you’re unacceptable on the radio every day is a real obstacle to consolidating the support of the Republican party. Nor is it just Limbaugh; there’s a deep enmity toward McCain, especially among a lot of the right-wing national press.

But how deep does that really cut? Especially if polls show, as I suspect they will, that McCain is the strongest general election opponent? I don’t know the answer to that question. I don’t have the cite. But a poll that came out soon after his New Hampshire win seemed to show that there wasn’t much of a core of opposition to McCain among Republicans nationwide.

I think a lot of the establishment types in the GOP would rather go with Romney. And I think it’s a very open question how well McCain will do if this becomes a head to head race between McCain and Romney.

There’s also the issue of open and closed primaries. South Carolina, like Michigan and New Hampshire, but not many of the coming primaries, is an open primary. But if you look at the numbers tonight, John McCain lost Republicans by one point to Mike Huckabee.

There aren’t many open primaries left. And to best of my knowledge McCain has not won once this year among Republicans. He loses among Republicans and makes it up with big support from Independents.

All that said, if you’re looking forward to a Democratic White House in 2009, I don’t think this was a good night. Far better had Huck taken it.

A Sunday Times article on Jimmy Breslin.

Eilperin and Weisman in the Post on how various prestige right-wing yahoos tried but failed to derail McCain in South Carolina.

But remember, they have several more chances.