The knives are sharpening in the debate over the legitimacy of the super delegates. But is it really going to come to that? Don’t be so sure. We explain why in today’s episode of TPMtv …
Speculation that McCain may resign his senate seat; and he leaves the door open.
In the thick of a campaign it is easy to overrate the importance of an endorsement or a political hit. But it is difficult to overstate the significance of John Lewis’ switch from the Clinton to Obama camps because it is a devastating blow on two or three levels wrapped together in a single person. Lewis’ historic and moral stature in the African-American community and in the modern Democratic party bulks very large. âIn recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,â Lewis told the Times. âSomething is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.â This is a curious statement as he seems to be suggesting that his earlier endorsement of Clinton was based on his own failure to set his sights sufficiently high. What’s more, the willingness of a high-profile politician not simply to endorse one candidate but to switch from one to another (at least in terms of who he believes he’ll vote for as a super delegate) is a powerful sign that a tipping point is at hand.
But the most immediate and significant import is Lewis’s signal that whatever the basis of his original endorsement he is unwilling to join Clinton in carving a path to the nomination through the heart of the Democratic party. The tell in Lewis’s announcement is that he is not technically withdrawing his endorsement from Hillary, at least not yet. He is saying that as a super delegate (which is by virtue of being a member of Congress) he plans to vote for Obama at the convention. On Wednesday the Clinton camp started pushing hard on the idea that a delegate is a delegate and if they need to pack on super delegates to overwhelm Obama’s edge with elected delegates then so be it. A win is a win is a win. I take this as Lewis saying he just won’t sign on for that.
This also points to an argument I tried to make in today’s episode of TPMtv. The Clinton camp’s super delegate gambit is not only audacious. Far more than that it is simply unrealistic. The super delegates who are gettable for Clinton by loyalty, conviction or coercion are already got. And enough’s been seen of both candidates for everyone to be more than acquainted with them. The ones who remain — who make up roughly half the total — are waiting to see who the winner is.
The truth is that there are over 1000 elected delegates remaining to be won. We really don’t know what’s going to happen yet. But if the trend continues and Obama ends the primary season with a clear majority of elected delegates, the idea that those remaining super delegates will break for the candidate who won fewer delegates, raised less money and is polling worse against the Republican nominee simply makes no sense. I’m not saying that’s how it will be. But if Clinton starts winning big primaries in Ohio, Texas, Pennsylvania and other states, then the whole question is moot.
But this is like the unreality that seems more and more to suffuse the Clinton campaign. I don’t mean the candidate or her policies or the premises of her candidacy. I mean the cocoon of political ridiculousness that has increasingly permeated her campaign apparatus since early January.
You’ve seen my continuous barbs at Mark Penn, Clinton’s ‘chief strategist’. The last couple days have shown very clearly I think that Clinton could do nothing better for her campaign than to throttle this clown and let her get down to the business of making a case to voters for her candidacy. Perhaps good spin is an oxymoron, moral if not linguistic. But good spin is clever and forward-leaning pitches of actual realities, facts. The word in the sense we use it today actually came into being in the early 90s and to a great degree around the ’92 Clinton campaign, which had such mastery in its practice. But this Clinton campaign has been doing it in a weird parody mode. Not sharp ‘spins’ on favorable realities, but aggressive pitches of complete nonsense. So now you have Penn successively saying caucus wins don’t really count, small state wins don’t really count, medium state wins don’t really count, states with large African-American populations don’t really count, all building up to yesterday’s gem: “Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn’t won any of the significant states — outside of Illinois? That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”
Clinton is ultimately responsible for putting her political fate in this fool’s hands. But this is a guy who has basically one big political win under his belt and whose record in seriously contested races, particularly Democratic primary races is one of almost constant defeats. Much of Clinton’s current predicament stems from Penn’s disastrous, glass-jaw ‘inevitability’ strategy and the mind-boggling decision not even to contest a slew of states where Obama racked up huge victories and many delegates.
Campaigns are about winning votes not making excuses. There are plenty of delegates still out there for Clinton to win — over a thousand left in the remaining primaries. But her efforts are being stymied by a campaign apparatus rooted in the belief that any new reality can be overturned by pretending it away.
Each year I allow myself this indulgence. Today’s my birthday. I am turning 39. I can’t tell whether that number sounds newly old to me or not. It seems a touch alien to me in a way that 37 and 38 didn’t. But as Seneca says, Fate leads the willing and drags the unwilling. So I guess it doesn’t really matter.
The primary season is an exciting time for any political journalist. But it’s also a turbulent one running a site like this because the divisions and emotions of our readership become so intense that a lot of the acrimony inevitably laps up on to us.
But I will say that notwithstanding the real stresses of running this operation I feel a new contentment with my life. I like what I do. I’m proud of the team that puts this site together every day. I just found out that TPM won an award for its reporting on the US Attorney Purge scandal, which is nice to hear. And I’ve been trying to let go of things, which is contrary to my nature. But I think most of all because of my wife and my son, who in addition to being this amazing, rambunctious little person, is allowing me to fit my own life better into a context of impermanent things, invest myself in his just started as opposed to my half-run race. But beyond all those organized thoughts I find fatherhood simply a mystery, a very concrete one I find sitting in my bed in front of me each morning, but one that hits me in some suddenly brand new way several times a day and has wrapped me into a kind of love and devotion completely different from anything I’ve ever experienced before and something I really wasn’t able to imagine or get close to beforehand.
I don’t like it when people project their own experiences into a template for other peoples lives. But speaking for myself I do not think I could feel complete as a person, fully accept this boundedness as a person, or fully know what it was to be one without the turned-upside-down experience I’m having as a father.
In a few months my wife is going to give birth to our second son. So I’m looking forward to more of this.
Dare we hope?
Could House Democrats finally be ignoring his fear-mongering on terrorism and national security and be standing up to the President on the surveillance bill?
Is it too much to hope for?
An unrepentant Chris Matthews calls on Hillary to fire the “kneecappers” in her own press shop.
There was a fair amount of confusion last night and this morning about what exactly Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) told the NYT about how he would cast his superdelegate vote at the Democratic Convention.
We’ve been trying to track it down, and Lewis’ office promises a statement later today.
But the NYT reporter, Jeff Zeleny, was on CNN this morning, and explained his piece in more detail.
It comes down to this: Despite being a Hillary supporter, Lewis is not going to cast his superdelegate vote for Hillary because his district went for Obama in the Georgia primary. That’s the long and short of it. Greg Sargent has the details at Election Central.
So bad news for the Hillary camp’s strategy of using superdelegates to push her over the top if she’s trailing in elected delegates.
Three new polls of the Texas primary out today.
Two of the polls show Hillary ahead. Rasmussen comes back 54-38 for Hillary. A poll by Public Opinion Strategies/Hamilton Campaigns for the Texas Credit Union League gives Hillary a 49-41 lead.
The third poll, from ARG, which has had more than its share of what you might politely call “outliers” this primary season, puts Obama up 48-42.