Over the weekend, longtime Clinton adviser Harold Ickes raised the specter of Hillary being able to get the Michigan and Florida delegates seated by controlling a majority of the credentials committee at the convention, even if she trailed in pledged delegates.
Could that really happen?
Is the Clinton plagiarism charge hurting Obama in the polls?
It’s not clear. But in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, Obama’s national lead shrank from 7 points yesterday to 1 point today, and Gallup notes that among those surveyed last night, after a day of media coverage of the plagiarism charge, Clinton actually led.
Wisconsin is the island of primary goodness between Super Tuesday back on Feb. 5th and Last Stand Tuesday (Texas and Ohio) on March 4th. And tonight’s the night. (Our live results coverage starts at 9 PM Eastern.) The polls say Barack Obama is the likely winner. But there’s been so much buzz and hype for Obama over the last two weeks that a win for Hillary, even by a tiny margin, could seriously upset the apple cart. And most polls don’t show him that far ahead. We give you the run-down in today’s episode of TPMtv …
Despite Hillary’s denials, The Politico‘s Roger Simon defends his story today saying that Hillary will make a play for Obama’s pledged delegates.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination, it seems clear that that victory won’t be celebrated any time soon. The writing could be on the wall on March 5th. But even if that’s the case, the race seems unlikely to be settled for some time after that. And there’s of course the possibility, though I think it’s not likely, that the fight could go all the way to the convention.
And during that time, who takes on John McCain? McCain is already making a number of position changes that are getting little or no media attention. He’s caught up in some very questionable campaign finance gambits. And he’s launching daily and fairly harsh attacks on Barack Obama, as he’s wise to do as long as the Democrats are distracted by their own primary fight.
Someone at the DNC, or other party organization should be putting together a campaign apparatus in waiting that will take on the Republican nominee until a clear Democratic winner can take over. But at the moment I’m not seeing any sign of it.
Steve Clemons: It’s way past time to give up the illusion that the embargo provides the U.S. with any leverage over Cuba.
For those of you wanting to know more about McCain’s loan secured with a promise to pretend to stay in the race after he’d lost in order to get federal funds to pay back his loan, check out this Mark Schmitt post from yesterday.
Marie Wilson, at TPMCafe Table for One: We assume that women will have a hard time being seen as competent in the area of national security, yet attitudes have been changing at lightning speed.
In case you’re checking in, we’ll be bringing you live results starting at 9 PM eastern when the polls close in Wisconsin.
If these CBS exit polls are close to right, it looks like a solid night for Obama. According to this tabulation, Obama is winning women by 2 points (51% to 49%). And he’s winning men 61% to 35%. The exit data shows women making up 57% of the Democratic electorate. But that still suggets a pretty solid win for Obama.
We’ll know more starting in about 45 minutes.