One of the more diverting aspects of the 2008 campaign is watching how the GOP wedge issue playbook descends toward self-parody as its effectiveness diminishes.
Here’s the ad running from Missouri Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO) against challenger and former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes (D-MO) and her ad responding.
And Barnes’ response …
As you can see, the AP is reporting that Sen. Ted Kennedy has a malignant brain tumor. That was the cause of the unexplained seizure at the end of last week. There’s no point playing amateur doctor. But I think we’re all taught to understand a cancerous brain tumor as a very grave diagnosis. I hope that’s not the case. We wish him and his family the very best.
Join us tonight starting at 6 PM for results from Kentucky and later the Oregon primaries. And for an overview of what to expect and whether the Clinton-Obama quasi-truce will hold up, see today’s Kentucky/Oregon roundup episode of TPMtv …
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
SurveyUSA is doing a series of McCain vs. Obama head to head match-up polls in different states testing an almost mystifying number of vice presidential possibilities for each nominee. Their poll of Pennsylvania is out today. And the snapshot is that John Edwards — someone who I don’t think many have considered as a Veep possibility this year — is, from this poll at least, Obama’s strongest pick.
The real headline though is the baseline number: McCain vs. Obama without veep nominees attached. On that SurveyUSA has Obama beating McCain 48% to 40%. And this, remember, was the nut Obama wasn’t supposed to be able to crack.
You can see the range of possibilities here, which go from a very narrow McCain lead to an Obama landslide.
To be clear, I do not expect Obama to win Pennsylvania in a landslide. I think it will be very tight. But this is a potent corrective to the idea that Obama can’t win the state.
Late Update: TPM Reader SS makes the point — and one I agree with — that we shouldn’t read too much into the numbers for these different veep possibilities because a number of them have almost zero name recognition. I would guess that very few people around the country have any idea who Pawlenty or Sebelius even are. So, not that they mean nothing. But I’d see those as very mutable. What is striking is that even plugging in a lot of names that a lot of people have never even heard of, the terrain seems to tilt heavily in Obama’s direction.
Later Update: A good point from TPM Reader DR …
I think the thing that jumps out at me about that chart is the way Obama’s choice seems pivotal, while McCain seems static with a veep choice that will have little impact on his standing. If you look at it, Pawlenty, Romney, Lieberman, and Huckabee all make appearances up and down the chart (all with varying degrees of name recognition), meaning they could be viewed as good, bad, or, more likely, insignificant to his standing. On the other hand, when you look at Obama, Edwards is clearly the best choice for him (high name recognition), while Rendell is a clear second (home state), and Hagel and Sebelius have poorer showings (low recognition). It is of course true that Sebelius isn’t really a worse choice than Edwards, people will get to know her if she’s chosen. But the point of greater importance I see is that, veep choice aside, McCain already trails Obama, but when you factor in the veep choice Obama has a chance to make serious gains while McCain seems like he’ll be stuck at the same barely competitive spot no matter who he chooses.
Joe Klein gets a hanging John McCain right over the plate and knocks him out of the park. At least a standup double.
Kentucky straddles two time zones. Polls close in eastern Kentucky at 6 ET and in western Kentucky at 7 ET. Results should start trickling in after 6, but the nets won’t call the contest until all the polls have closed at 7. Given Hillary’s enormous leads in polls and Obama’s virtual concession, it would be a surprise if this race wasn’t called at 7 sharp.
Nets call it as soon as polls close. Exit polls suggest a 2-to-1 margin for Clinton.
If I’m not mistaken Terrry McAuliffe just announced two new goalposts.
1. Hillary has gotten more votes and delegates since March 4th.
2. Hillary has gotten more votes in a nomination race than anyone in history. “Hillary Clinton has now received more votes than any candidate ever running for president in a primary.”
As I said in this morning’s episode of the TPMtv, I think that over the last week there’ve been tentative but hopeful signs of a deescalation of tensions between the two campaigns. But some of this stuff is just ridiculous. Point one sounds like it’s probably true. What relevance it has I have no idea. Point two though is really the kicker. Even if you change the rules and fully seat Michaigan and Florida and count them for the popular vote totals and don’t count any portion of the Michigan “uncommitted” (which were understood a the to be for Obama) vote for Obama, Hillary is still behind in the popular vote total. The only way she moves ahead in popular vote is if you do all that and don’t count four of the caucus states.
Some stuff is just too ridiculous to let pass. You just have to assume this is just Terry’s nonsense.
Let’s go to the video …
Sen. Clinton is on stage now in Kentucky making some very nice, moving comments about Sen. Kennedy. I must say the news about Sen. Kennedy today really hit me like a sock in the gut. People get terrible diagnoses every day. In a sense, we all will at some point — it’s just a question of whether it will come slowly enough to get that grim heads up. I lost both my parents very suddenly. So I’m not new to the subject. But this really caught me off-guard. And gets to me at some deep level. I don’t know if other people’s experience is the same.
Late Update: TPM Reader LS sent in this video. It’s entirely unexceptional in a sense. Something I’ve seen a million times, just with different details, a different amendment or law. In this case, it’s Ted Kennedy from a year and a half ago on the floor of the senate, on the minimum wage. Somehow it’s fitting …