It’s looking more and more like Gov. (but for how long) Gibbons (R) of Nevada may be in for a lot 
of trouble.
Gibbons, you’ll remember, gave up his House seat in 2006 just ahead of a federal investigation into whether he “accepted unreported gifts or payments” from a defense contractor who got secret contracts with Gibbons assistance. He gave up his seat to run for governor. But just to up the scandal ante at home, not long before election day, he followed a cocktail waitress, Chrissy Mazzeo, back to a parking garage where, she alleged, he attempted to sexually assault her.
The whole subject became drawn out and messy and picked up several plot twists right out of an Elmore Leonard novel. To make a long story short, Gibbons and Co. eventually made the whole thing go away — but not without plenty of signs and not a little evidence that local pols, law enforcement and wealthy pals went to heroic and goonish efforts to help their friend beat the rap. For some of the gory and clownish details see Justin Rood’s coverage of the 
story from late 2006 in our TPMmuckraker Gibbons’ file.
But now it looks like Gibbons’ chickens, and more importantly his philandering, might be coming home to roost. Gibbons is now involved in a nasty and protracted divorce battle with his wife — one that escalated dramatically after he took the bold step of trying to have his estranged wife evicted from governor’s mansion. Dawn Gibbons has hired attorney Charles Dunlap, who seems to have a reputation for liking to fight his cases in the press. And Dunlap is pushing to unseal the court documents relating to the divorce.
But the real news comes in a post today from Justin Rood (now of ABCNews.com’s The Blotter). Dawn Gibbons is now more or less openly threatening to air Gibbons’ dirty laundry on all his sundry scandals. According to Rood, in a recent filing Dawn Gibbons claimed the public was “misled” about the Mazzeo incident by Gibbons’ “handlers, spinmeisters and staff.” And her lawyer, Dunlap, is hinting that she might have stories to tell about the earmarks and bribery investigation too.
It’s looking like a lot of muck is going to be coming down the pike in Nevada. And luckily, as of Monday we’ll again be fully staffed at TPMmuckraker. So we’ll be ready.
Just to update your general election scorecards, be sure to note that the administration will be trying to have military tribunals for al Qaeda conspirators timed to run during the final weeks before the November election.
As both campaigns prepare to make their case for what to do about Florida and Michigan before the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC), I wanted to focus your attention on an issue that has gotten too little attention.
The Clinton campaign argues that if the delegates from these non-sanctioned primaries are not seated hundreds of thousand of voters in Florida and Michigan will be disenfranchised.
The other side argues that it is wrong to change the rules of the nomination process after the fact in order to advantage one candidate over another. The latter is an argument I agree with — but there’s no question it lacks the emotive impact of the disenfranchisement argument.
What doesn’t get mentioned, however, is this: it was widely reported and understood in both Florida and Michigan that the results of these primaries would not be counted. And based on that knowledge, large numbers of voters in both states simply didn’t participate.
If the DNC were now to turn around and decide to make these contests count after all, these non-participating voters would be disenfranchised no less than the people who did turn out would be if the DNC sticks to the rules and doesn’t seat any of the delegates. The simple fact is that large numbers of people, acting on accurate knowledge and in good faith, decided that there wasn’t a real primary being held in their state on the day in question and on that basis decided not to participate.
Now, the question is, How can we really know how many people didn’t show up because they were told it wasn’t a real election? There is of course no way to arrive at a direct answer, at least no practical one. But this post by Eric Kleefeld, which builds on a statistical analysis by Gregory P. Nini and Glenn Hurowitz, makes a very strong case that as many as one million voters in Florida and probably more than a half million voters in Michigan did not vote who otherwise would have if they had not believed that the results would not be counted. Take a look.
How many pinheads can stand on the head of a pin?
We analyze this question in our run-down of Doug Feith’s book tour …
The Post‘s Michael Abramowitz has a good catch this morning:
Getting lost in the media furor over McClellan’s memoir is the new autobiography of retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo S. Sanchez, the onetime commander of U.S. troops in Iraq, who is scathing in his assessment that the Bush administration “led America into a strategic blunder of historic proportions.”
Among the anecdotes in “Wiser in Battle: A Soldier’s Story” is an arresting portrait of Bush after four contractors were killed in Fallujah in 2004, triggering a fierce U.S. response that was reportedly egged on by the president.
During a videoconference with his national security team and generals, Sanchez writes, Bush launched into what he described as a “confused” pep talk:
“Kick ass!” he quotes the president as saying. “If somebody tries to stop the march to democracy, we will seek them out and kill them! We must be tougher than hell! This Vietnam stuff, this is not even close. It is a mind-set. We can’t send that message. It’s an excuse to prepare us for withdrawal.”
“There is a series of moments and this is one of them. Our will is being tested, but we are resolute. We have a better way. Stay strong! Stay the course! Kill them! Be confident! Prevail! We are going to wipe them out! We are not blinking!”
A White House spokesman had no comment.
Walter Pincus has been sifting through new U.S. government contracts, which in their own incremental way show how deep and long-term the U.S. commitment is to propping up Iraq.
From the AP:
A one-time chief of staff to former Rep. Ernest Istook is being charged with conspiracy to defraud the House of Representatives in a lobbying scandal.
John Albaugh is accused of accepting gifts in return for official favors. The charge is outlined in a criminal information filed in federal court on Friday. Such documents are normally entered as part of a plea deal. A court hearing was set for Monday afternoon.
A former Republican congressman from Oklahoma, Istook accepted tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff and his associates. Istook also used the lobbyist’s skybox at concerts.
Late Update: Several readers have emailed wondering if Albaugh is related to former FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh, Bush’s Texas pal. I assume the different spelling of Albaugh/Allbaugh means no relation.
As you probably seen, there’s been a rush of stories today predicting a quick move to shutter Hillary Clinton’s campaign, as soon as Tuesday night but more likely on Wednesday. The most detailed story is Tom Edsall’s from Huffpo.
We’re working our sources too. And Obama spokesman Bill Burton confirms to our Greg Sargent that the two did speak yesterday evening but denies that there was more than that.
It’s probably worth also pointing out the obvious, which is that after tomorrow night, the Democratic nominating process will literally be over. No more primaries, no more caucuses, no more disputed delegations waiting to be resolved. There’s a remaining question whether Obama can get enough supers before or soon after tomorrow night’s voting to actually clinch it. But with thing going on for so long I think many of us have gotten to a point where we can’t quite believe this would ever end. But at a certain it’s no longer a matter of a concession. It just ends. But it does look like we’ll have some confirmation of where this is going in a matter of days, perhaps even not too many hours.
Late Update: In another bit of tea leaves, the undeclared Democratic senators (who are of course also superdelegates) are meeting this afternoon to discuss how to go forward.
Late In The Primary Process Update: Here’s what Clinton’s top fundraiser, Hassan Nemazee, told Greg Sargent about reports she’ll drop out Tuesday.