As I and innumerable others have mentioned, the red states that seem genuinely ripe for flipping this year are Colorado and Virginia. Others are definitely possible. But those are the ones that might even be considered probable.
The most recent poll of Viriginia (May 22nd) has Obama beating McCain by 7 points (49%-42%). And the one immediately previous has Obama down by 3 points (47%-44%).
Colorado is even stronger for Obama. The most recent poll (Rasmussen, May 21st) has Obama up by 6 points and the one previous to that (Ramussen, April 21st) had him up by 3.
TPM Reader DS sent me to this electoral college widget and fiddling around I found that if I gave the Dems Virginia and Colorado, I could get them to victory while losing Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, New Mexico and Nevada. The other states I’m giving the Dems all seem eminently winnable, though a few in the upper midwest will certainly take some hard work.
Of course, there are a million different ways to divide up the electoral votes. But since I’m increasingly confident that Obama can actually win Ohio, this put me in a bullish state of mind.
Seems the McCain campaign is not closely moderating the comments on their McCain golf gear page.
Late Update: In a very un-web 2.0 move, the McCain site is no longer allowing readers to post reviews of his McCain Golf Pack.
With the general election campaign now upon us, we thought we’d take a look at the map and see where the real swing states are this cycle …
High-res version at Veracifier.com.
McCain: Bringing Troops Home from Iraq “Not Too Important” …
Get a good look. Within a day or so he won’t have said it.
Before going up the river, a convicted hedge fund manager might have jumped into it. He left the message “suicide is painless” scrawled in the dust on the hood of his car. Was it the real thing or a fake suicide on the eve of serving a 20-year prison term?
The McCain campaign is hitting back hard against Democratic criticism of his “not that important” quote this morning on Today. But as often is the case with McCain, the explanations of what he said are even sillier than the original statement.
According to the McCain camp, the original clip that we published this morning doesn’t contain the full context of the remarks. And they’ve posted a longer version, which doesn’t appear to change the meaning in any meaningful way. But decide for yourself.
Their other point is that McCain isn’t saying that bringing the troops home isn’t that important, he’s saying that precisely when they come home isn’t that important and that reducing the number of casualties is more important than the precise date when they come home. But this highly strained argument seems premised on the assumption that journalists should report not what you say but your own highly generous after-the-fact interpretation of what you said.
I would say that in the context of Iraq when they come home and whether they come home are actually inextricably combined. Presumably US military personnel won’t be in Iraq 20,000 years from now. At some point they’ll come home. But staying for many decades is, in the context of most of our lives, the same as staying forever. On the latter point McCain doesn’t say that reducing casualties is more important than getting people home. He’s saying one is his focus and the other isn’t very important.
Sometimes these references by McCain are treated as gaffes but they’re not. This is what McCain believes: that we should have a long-term troop presence in Iraq to guarantee the survival of a pro-U.S. government and assert power in the region. That’s not a crazy position. That’s the position of the current administration. That’s why we’re currently trying to secure an agreement with the Iraqis to ratify that goal. The problem isn’t that McCain’s position is incomprehensible. It’s just not popular. Most Americans think reducing casualties is important too. But they’d like to do both — reduce casualties and leave too.
The problem for the McCain campaign is that he keeps stumbling into clear statements of his actual policy, which is close to lethal since the vast majority of Americans disagree with his policy and Iraq is virtually the only thing he’s running on. The context the McCain campaign keeps trying to put forward after the fact is what they wished he’d said rather than what he did. And even that, when you push deep, isn’t that different from McCain’s actual policy, which is that he doesn’t think we should be leaving Iraq for years to come, most likely decades.
Presidents pick vice presidential nominees for different reasons — for foreign policy cred, to secure the support of a key state or demographic. But if John McCain picks Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) for his vice presidential nominee, as he’s reportedly considering doing, Jindal may be able to bring McCain key assistance in holding exorcisms and casting demonic spirits out of the afflicted. He’s got experience.
Are the Senate Dems finally going to toss Joe Lieberman overboard? We ask the question in today’s episode of TPMtv and look at one way grassroots Dems across the country may be able to give the final push that sends him over the edge …
High-res version at Veracifier.com.