The public discussion of the Palin nomination has settled into two contending storylines — Palin as trainwreck of a poorly vetted nomination and Palin sending base conservatives and right-wing evangelicals into ascending heights of reactionary delirium.

But this is not as big a contradiction as it may appear.

The race to date has been characterized by two key facts.

First, the Democratic base is bigger than the Republican base. The number of self-identifying Democrats is substantially larger that the number of Republican-identifiers.

Second, contrary to what we might have imagined earlier in the year, Republicans have already been substantially more united behind McCain than Democrats have been behind Obama. I would not have predicted that. But the polls have been extremely consistent on this point.

In other words, the GOP ‘base’ was already substantially united behind McCain, subjective measures of intensity notwithstanding. The people who will win the election for McCain are disaffected Democrats and independents. In the context of 2008, a juicing-the-base strategy is a recipe for a respectable defeat, not victory.

Late Update: Here’s David Kurtz’s video update just filed from St. Paul on how GOP convention-goers are warming to Sarah Palin …

Generational election? Political sea change? After a few days in St. Paul, I’m beginning to be convinced:

Full-size video at TPMtv.com.

So says McCain’s own female campaign co-chair, Meg Whitman, but really, what does she know?

Since there is widespread agreement that the children of candidates should not become topics of campaign debate, it behooves us to note that the McCain campaign has almost singlehandedly made Sarah Palin’s daughter a central figure in the Republican convention.

It was the McCain campaign that announced Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy. That alone might be understandable since it appears a supermarket tabloid was about to print the story. But it was the McCain campaign, entirely on its own, that dished up unsubstantiated claims about maternity tests and all sorts of other lurid nonsense that had never been seen in print anywhere. And now the McCain campaign has staged a ceremonial laying-on-of-hands on the tarmac in St. Paul in which Sen. McCain has given his official blessing to the young couple and embrace of Bristol’s boyfriend Levi.

You can see brief video of the event here …

Let’s be clear about what’s happening here. Overwhelmingly, reporters are pressing eminently reasonable questions — her role in troopergate, her lack of experience, her connections to the AIP, her history of earmarking and lobbyists, etc. Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is going absolutely non-stop about Palin’s daughter. It is unmistakable.

Just watch (the voices are Mike Murphy and Peggy Noonan) …

And if you’re interested, the transcript …

Chuck Todd: Mike Murphy, lots of free advice, we’ll see if Steve Schmidt and the boys were watching. We’ll find out on your blackberry. Tonight voters will get their chance to hear from Sarah Palin and she will get the chance to show voters she’s the right woman for the job Up next, one man who’s already convinced and he’ll us why Gov. Jon Huntsman.

(cut away)

Peggy Noonan: Yeah.

Mike Murphy: You know, because I come out of the blue swing state governor world: Engler, Whitman, Tommy Thompson, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush. I mean, these guys — this is how you win a Texas race, just run it up. And it’s not gonna work. And —

PN: It’s over.

MM: Still McCain can give a version of the Lieberman speech to do himself some good.

CT: I also think the Palin pick is insulting to Kay Bailey Hutchinson, too.

PN: Saw Kay this morning.

CT: Yeah, she’s never looked comfortable about this —

MM: They’re all bummed out.

CT: Yeah, I mean is she really the most qualified woman they could have turned to?

PN: The most qualified? No! I think they went for this — excuse me– political bullshit about narratives —

CT: Yeah they went to a narrative.

MM: I totally agree.

PN: Every time the Republicans do that, because that’s not where they live and it’s not what they’re good at, they blow it.

MM: You know what’s really the worst thing about it? The greatness of McCain is no cynicism, and this is cynical.

CT: This is cynical, and as you called it, gimmicky.

MM: Yeah.

Palin aide, who had agreed to testify in trooper-gate probe, clams up, refuses to testify.

I think we’ve now arrived at my favorite moment of the campaign — when Steve Schmidt, the Rove protege who now runs John McCain’s campaign lashed out at the “old boys’ network” that runs the media.

From some reader …

Conveniently, Gallup released new numbers this afternoon that allow us to quantify the divergent trends you’ve fingered. In the three days following Palin’s selection, McCain brought his level of support among Republican women up five points to 90%, and eliminated his nagging gender gap. But that’s just within the GOP. Independents and Democrats reacted to Palin’s selection by turning to Obama – and his gains have more than offset McCain’s, leaving him with a substantial lead.

Sarah Palin to say in speech tonight that her Dem critics “look down” on her experience in small-town America.

Washington Independent digs up example of Palin crowing about bagging a pricey earmark.

This earmark, of course, was one John McCain singled out as egregious pork.