John McCain will be delivering his big acceptance speech tonight, and Barack Obama will be giving a pre-rebuttal interview on, of all places, The O’Reilly Factor. That and other political news in today’s Election Central Morning Roundup.
That’s how The Politico‘s Mike Allen just described Sarah Palin’s speech in a panel he’s moderating here in St. Paul that includes Karl Rove. At one point, Allen asked if there was a real “danger” of Palin now overshadowing McCain.
I know I’m swimming upstream against a stiff current. But I’ll stick to my first impression. I think Mike Allen is nuts to call the Palin speech a grand slam. For partisan Republicans, absolutely. It’s a bad year for Republicans and the desire for something or someone to get excited about is palpable. And they got it. But there’s only so much more consolidating of the Republican base McCain can do. As good as her delivery was, I really don’t think this was a speech that spoke to the issues that are driving the election this year. I don’t think it’s a slashing attacks against liberal elites kind of year. And as much as politics is about gut reactions and instinct, I don’t think ignoring any discussion of the economy this year works. Finally, fundamentally, I do think this is a change election year. And I don’t think that was a change speech. Not a convincing one.
As I said, I could totally be wrong. Just my opinion.
Also significant, while the networks have gotten distracted about the kid nonsense, Palin has a serious issue with a lot of on the record lies — on a serious front with trooper-gate and on a lighter front with the repeated lies about the bridge to nowhere.
Through August, as the McCain campaign laid down a blanket of harsh and denigrating ads diminishing Obama and the Obama camp receded into the background with little clear message defining the election for up-for-grabs voters, I felt increasingly concerned about the course of the race. After this, I don’t feel that way.
Late Update: I just saw James Fallows’ take on this. I think he’s got it right.
You’d think Dan Balz would be a little gun-shy after getting burned on that first Palin vetting story. I guess not.
I’m certainly not saying this will be the across the board response. And self-identified Republicans loved Palin’s speech. But a focus group of Michigan independents did not like it.
Late Update: Focus groups of female undecideds in Nevada didn’t seem to like it either.
Fired Alaska Public Safety Commissioner at the center of trooper-gate scandal says Palin is not telling the truth.
I’ve posted links below to a couple focus groups on the Palin speech last night. If you’ve seen others, either in press write ups or discussed on cable news, can you send them along?
TPM Reader LT:
It really looks like the Republicans think that the Presidency, and election to it, is some kind of a joke. That it’s a game which anyone can play at, so it doesn’t matter if they grab a governor who is a political neophyte already embroiled in controversy on every front. It’s a joke, so it’s fine to ridicule and bully your opponent, fib, stall investigations, etc.
The “seriousness” (or “seriously?”) narrative is the kind that could sway swing voters: independents don’t want drama in their ticket — they want people who can get down to business. They want a ticket that treats voters like sober adults, that treats an election to the Presidency seriously. McCain spokespeople say it’s “Not about the issues?” What, so it’s a high school popularity contest, then?
I don’t know how effective this would be with independents but it sure works on me.
TPMCaférs Bernard Avishai, Jim Sleeper and Dr. C.A. Rotwang share their thoughts on the lures and snares of the Alaskan governor. Viva Sarah!