Howard Fineman just had a very interesting point on Chris Matthews’ show. Pennsylvania is the only state where the state party pushed the Rev. Wright card really hard. And it seems they may now be reaping the whirlwind with extremely high African-American turnout in Philly and throughout the state.
We’re only getting very early indications now from Indiana. But a mix of the exit polls, which suggests a decent Obama win and early returns at least suggests that it’s a real race. And if it’s a real race in Indiana, that portends a pretty long night for John McCain.
7 PM is a critical hour. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina and Vermont.
As I wrote earlier, Virginia is critical. It’s looked good in the polls for Obama. And if he takes it, McCain is almost out of options.
Watch Virginia.
Late Update: Exits looking very encouraging for Obama in Virginia.
Switching to Live Blogging Mode …
7:21 PM … In the states that are now closed we now have the officially released exit polls. We have the gender breakdown of the electorate and the topline breakdown of how each gender voted. So with a few simple calculations they amount to this …
Georgia: McCain 50%, Obama 48%
Indiana: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Remember. I can’t emphasize this enough. These are just exit polls. They’re not always right. Kerry’s numbers looked very similar. I remember it well.
Dems are liking what they’re seeing in this bellweather county in Indiana.
7:43 PM … One thing you can see really clearly tonight is the extreme reticence the networks have about calling or even loosely predicting the winners and losers in states. That’s a very good thing. But you can feel the cold hand of 2004 hanging over the predictors this time.
7:50 PM … Initial exits out of North Carolina and Ohio, computed on the same basis as those below.
North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 48%
Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Remember, they’re exit polls. As my grandpa might have said, that and two bits will get you a cup of coffee.
7:55 PM … Telling moment. Ohio GOP Ken Blackwell telling MSNBC that Obama is doing so well because he’s “adopted the language of the Reagan coalition.”
8:01 PM … MSNBC just called PA for Obama. But as far as we can tell they’re the only ones so far. If that turns out true, it’s a huge setback for McCain. And we don’t “call” states until at least two networks do.
8:03 PM … PA Exits: Obama 57%, McCain 42%
8:04 PM … ABC calls PA for Obama.
8:18 PM … Fox and CBS call North Carolina for Hagan; retiring Liddy Dole.
8:22 PM … McCain bids farewell to campaign reporters (this is video from earlier today) …
8:30 PM …Nets called Shaheen (NH) and Hagan (NC) winning their senate seats.
8:42 PM … Obama’s holding Pennsylvania is a very key win. For now, though, remember, Obama has yet to poach a red state. It’s not looking good at all for McCain. But it’s not over.
8:43 PM … It’s looking like Chambliss and McConnell are going to hold on; which means the Dems would have to pick up the Mississippi seat to hit 60. So the odds on that are looking long.
8:45 PM … Special Treat: looks like Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL), big pal of Jack Abramoff and really unpleasant guy, seems to be going down the drain. (Two nets have now called it for his opponent — sounds like he’s done.)
8:47 PM … FYI, MSNBC and Fox have now both called Georgia for McCain.
8:59 PM … We’re watching the Virginia exit really closely. They’re starting to adjust them now against actual returns. They’ve now tightened a bit in McCain’s direction. They’re now at 52%-46% for Obama. So looks promising but this one is definitely still wait and see.
9:03 PM … We’ve got the first unadjusted exit out of the Minnesota. And it’s Franken 47%, Coleman 37%. But that’s unadjusted. So don’t put too much stock in it.
9:10 PM … Chuck Todd bumming me out.
9:11 PM … Would really like to see a red state.
9:15 PM … Mike Murphy has taken it upon himself to make me feel a bit better. He’s looking at the Florida numbers and he sees McCain underperforming in key Republican parts of the state.
9:20 PM … Fox and I want to stress ONLY FOX is now calling Ohio for Obama. If that pans out, I’d say we’re looking at our next president. But no other network so far. And Fox has been really aggressive in calling states.
9:23 PM … MSNBC and Fox call Ohio for Obama.
9:29 PM … For the moment, I’m not sure what else I have to say.
9:31 PM … Fox and MSNBC have now called New Mexico for Obama. At this point, McCain must win a major blue state to win. But none seem likely. Pennsylvania was the place to do it.
9:40 PM … Still hearing that McCain is underperforming in critical parts of Florida. So looking promising. But don’t pop any Florida corks.
9:42 PM … Stephanopoulos: With Ohio and PA for Obama, “unless something staggering happens, it’s hard to see how McCain gets to 270.”