TPM Reader JM responds to my post from last night on Rudy …

I bet all the Democratic frontrunners are praying that Rudy wins the nomination. Why? Because negative campaign advertising is more effective than any other political tactic, and Rudy’s life reads as if it’s been scripted for cinematic evisceration.

No one has pulled the big guns out against Rudy yet. He’s got a target on his back the size of Montana’s sky: his personal indiscretions, his penchant for befriending mobbed up guys and sexually abusive priests, and his flip-flopping on issues near and dear to his base.

Then there’s Rudy’s perceived strength: 9/11. Talk to the FDNY about that one. Once the real heroes of 9/11 have told their side of the story in 30 second snippets with the Twin Towers devastation swirling in the background, Mr. 9/11 will be Mr. Smoldering Ruin.

If you doubt any of this, take a look at Robert Greenwald’s short videos on Rudy. There’s a powerful, multi-faceted anti-Rudy narrative lurking out there waiting for a wide audience. As the 2004 election proved, swiftboating works. This time around, should Rudy get the nod, the swiftboating will have the added benefit of being, you know, true.

I agree with a lot of this. Indeed, I’ve written about a lot of it. There’s a lot to be said about Rudy’s judgment by the fact that he put a mobbed-up cop in charge of the NYPD on the basis of his having done a good job as Rudy’s driver. He’s also being advised on foreign policy by a pack of loons. And I hasten to point out that I didn’t say Rudy might be a strong candidate but that I think he might be the strongest. Big difference.

That said, I didn’t think Rudy’d be at the head of the pack in October 2007. So we’ll see.

From Ha’aretz …

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said a few months ago in a series of closed discussions that in her opinion that Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel, Haaretz magazine reveals in an article on Livni to be published Friday.

Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears. Last week, former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy said similar things about Iran.

The article also reveals for the first time a document Livni prepared and sent to Olmert a few months after the Second Lebanon War proposing a new division of labor between the two. “Enclosed is a proposal for work procedures between us, with the aim of providing an answer to Israel’s strategic needs and facilitating early planning and the formulation of coordinated Israeli positions … within the framework of cooperative
relations, full transparency and continuous mutual updates,” wrote Livni.

The student paper at GW interviewed Horowitz on ‘Islamofascism Awareness Week’ and he seems to have let the cat out of the bag about the goal behind the event.

“I’m a prominent conservative but no one is inviting me to speak at their campuses,” Horowitz said in an interview with The Hatchet. “I had to create an event.”

The conspiracy against me is revealed by the fact that despite my popularity and prominence no one wants to have me come and speak at their campus.

Rudy on whether waterboarding is torture:

“I’m not sure it is, either,” said Rudy. “It depends on how it’s done. It depends on the circumstances. It depends on who does it.”

And as for the media, Rudy said they’ve exaggerated the nature of waterboarding.

“Sometimes they describe it accurately. Sometimes they exaggerate it,” Rudy said. “So I’d have to see what they really are doing, not the way some of these liberal newspapers have exaggerated it.”

In a little-noticed speech Tuesday at the Georgetown Law Center, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said telecom immunity would be “grossly irresponsible” until Congress knows what conduct is being immunized.

TPM Reader MR on Rudy …

Guiliani’s continued #1 position can be broken down very simply, in my opinion. Lots and lots and lots of well-meaning, non-evil Americans voted for Bush in 2004. After 3 long years, they now know the man they voted for is incompetent. But because no one likes to admit they made a mistake, the self-examination stops there… many Bush voters don’t think they voted for the wrong ideals, just the wrong person to carry them out. Enter Guiliani. He seems to them like the opposite of incompetent, in fact, he’s the guy who gets things done. He’s like Bush, only smart.

To you and I that seems like an obvious bad thing. But to them Guiliani allows an enormous saving of face for having voted for Bush.

I don’t agree with this. My sense is that most polls now show that a clear majority of people think the Iraq War was a mistake. Not just poorly handled, but a bad idea in itself. So far at least I think the key to Rudy’s strength in the Republican primaries is that he’s offering to make up for aborted fetuses with more genuine dead people in the Middle East. And for many core Republican voters it’s a very hard offer to pass up.

White House offers Leahy and Specter access to secret surveillance docs already released to Senate intel committee.

More on that Israeli bombing run into Syria, from the Post:

A mysterious Syrian military facility that was reportedly the target of an attack by Israeli jets last month has been razed, according to a new satellite image that shows only a vacant lot in the place where Syria was recently constructing what some U.S. officials believe was a nuclear reactor.

The new photograph, taken by a commercial satellite yesterday, suggests that Syrian officials moved quickly to remove evidence of the project after it was damaged by Israeli bombs on Sept. 6, said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a nonprofit research group.

TPM Reader JH from Illinois on Rudy …

I have a friend at work who is a self-proclaimed “moderate”. My friend is an avid pro-lifer, but has thrown that aside to support Rudy because he has completely bought into the “9/11 hero” persona that the Giuliani campaign is fostering. Nothing I throw at the guy will deter him: Rudy’s pre-9/11 lapses; employing a child molester; supporting war in Iran and torture, etc. — NOTHING. For him, anti-terrorism and America’s security trumps everything else. And, I think, a lot of other conservative Americans probably feel the same way.

I, however, feel that Rudy’s success is due in large part to Hillary’s success. I think that a lot of GOP’ers are grudgingly coming to the reality that a Giuliani candidacy would stand the best shot of defeating Hillary Clinton. The anti-Hillary vibe is SO strong in America’s conservative core, that I think they would be willing to look the other way on Giuliani’s “liberal” social views, just for a real shot at defeating Clinton.

Could be wrong, but that’s the way I see it. 😉

For Hillary, the dilemma is how to trumpet her own inevitability without creating impossible expectations.