New Mexico Dems are charging that the state GOP has been calling Democrats and giving incorrect poll location info.
Final Congressional generic from Fox: Dems by 13%.
Okay, let’s return to those late congressional generic polls. I think we now have all the polls likely to be released before the election. The total is seven. And one obvious pattern shows up. The two polls released on Saturday had big Democratic margins in line with recent polls (Time, Newsweek). The three released yesterday showed substantial or dramatic tightening of the race (Pew, WaPo, Gallup). And then the two released today showed the race back to the big Democratic leads of the past few weeks (CNN, Fox).
Time 2-3rd: D+15
Newsweek 2-3rd: D+16
Pew 1-4th: D+4
WaPo 1-4th: D+6
Gallup 2-5th: D+7
CNN 3-5th: D+20
Fox 4-5th: D+13
The pattern that jumps out is that the polls in the middle period — particularly those that included the fourth but not the fifth — show the big tightening. The ones before and after show the big Dem leads.
The first thing to point out is that there just isn’t enough data here — at least not in the toplines — to say whether this is really a blip in public opinion on the days in question or whether the different polling outfits are just using different likely voter methodologies and that difference happens coincidentally to show a illusory chronological pattern.
I’ll be eager to hear from more poll savvy folks, once they’ve dipped into the internals, about what to make of all this.
(ed.note: Notations about the dates of the polls were hastily pulled together from media reports. In some cases they were ambiguous. If anyone has corrections, please send them in. I was unable to find the dates of the polling for the Newsweek poll — as noted by the question mark after the date. So I’ve inferred polling dates of Nov. 1-3rd from the date of release, Nov. 4.)
Late Update: Pollingreport says the Newsweek poll was conducted on the 2nd and 3rd. So I’ve changed the above stats accordingly. Thanks to TPM Reader MB for the tip.
Nazis and NAMBLA and gay scoutmasters, oh my!
See the newest mailer from John Doolittle’s campaign.
Ahhh the Republican gene … This just out from Keystone Politics …
Santorum Poll Released by Indicted Republican Operative
Early this morning, Keystone Politics editors received and released a poll by McCulloch Research and Polling showing that Rick Santorum was within 4 points of retaining his Senate seat. Further research into McCulloch Research and Polling shows that Rod McCulloch, principal at the firm, has been indicted in voter fraud and forgery in Illinois.
I guess we can put that one down as a GOP poll on both counts.
Local Kansas TV station picks up on the GOP voter suppression call campaign.
If you see reports of the GOP’s voter suppression robocall campaign showing up in your local press, let us know.
Reporters are starting to write stories about it. We’ll see if it’s soon enough to give voters an idea of how Republicans are trying to subvert the election.
TPM Reader KB: “You know I’m happy that there’s some talk that print reporters are looking into the voter supression calls, but frankly it is just too late for something in tomorrow’s papers to make a difference. We need ALL Dem talking heads and surrogates who will be apprearing on cable TV tonight to raise this issue — whether they are asked about it or not. Get it on the airwaves. Force it on shows tonight.”
Did you get the scam robocall from the GOP? Reporters would like to chat with you here.
Republicans in NY-19 lie about being behind the calls. But the local paper is on the case.
A press update on the scam calls in NY-20. ChiTrib catches on too.
GOP: the party of election tampering. The shoe fits.