I’d quibble with a few points. But over at Billmon.org there’s a very insightful brief history of the several decade struggle between Realists and neocons in the Republican party. Good stuff. Take a look.

I was having lunch with a friend today, and mid-way through our meal I noticed a TV near the bar running CNN with the tell-tale ‘Breaking News’ logo.

I looked over and saw that it was some Justice Department news conference and figured it couldn’t be something too interesting.

Getting back to my office this afternoon I see it was a bit of a bigger deal than I thought.

As you’ve probably already seen, Attorney General John Ashcroft has decided to recuse himself from the Plame leak investigation, which will be taken over by Patrick J. Fitzgerald, the current United States Attorney in Chicago.

It is gratifying to see that the investigative machinery at Justice and the FBI is a touch more on the ball than the collective wisdom of the Washington press corps, which was that the legal and substantive political issues raised by this incident were satisfactorily resolved by Plame’s appearance in a photo in Vanity Fair. But we can discuss this town’s corruption another time …

One point of detail.

At the Washington Post website, the caption under a photo of Fitzgerald seems to identify him as a Republican. But reports from the time of his appointment as US Attorney have him identifying himself as an independent and denying any partisan affiliation.

This from a May 13th 2001 AP report …

The son of Irish immigrants and a graduate of the Harvard Law School, Patrick Fitzgerald said he is neither a Republican nor a Democrat.

“I’m an independent,” he told reporters.

Sen. Fitzgerald said a professional prosecutor with a streak of professional independence was just what he wanted.

The senator said that at the outset of his search he consulted outgoing FBI director Louis Freeh.

“I asked Mr. Freeh who in his opinion were the best prosecutors in the country and one of the first names he mentioned was Pat Fitzgerald,” the senator said.

Patrick Fitzgerald graduated from Harvard’s law school one year ahead of Sen. Fitzgerald’s wife, Nina. But aides to the senator said the two apparently had never met while at Harvard.

In New York, Fitzgerald has the reputation of a tough, no-nonsense prosecutor who doesn’t relish bantering with reporters. He is trusted by U.S. Attorney Mary Jo White and was by her side when law enforcement officials gathered the night in July 1996 when TWA Flight 800 burst into flames over Long Island and 230 aboard were killed.

I’ve only had a chance to do a cursory look at Fitzgerald. So these judgments are tentative. But, from what I’ve seen, he appears to be someone without any strong partisan profile and a career prosecutor with experience both in public corruption cases and intelligence and counter-terrorism.

More on this shortly …

A few more quick thoughts on John Ashcroft’s recusal in the Plame investigation.

First, I’ve heard a bit more about Patrick Fitzgerald, the man Deputy Attorney General James Comey appointed to serve as a special prosecutor in the Plame case. And, thus far, everything I’ve heard leads me to believe he’ll lead an independent investigation.

One can never know in advance of course what motives or predispositions a person might have. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating(hackneyed phrase? yes. but clear and to the point). But one can look at clues from past performance. And those clues point in the right direction.

And then, another issue. Why did this happen? And why now?

A few possibilities suggest themselves.

One might surmise that Ashcroft, after some time to think it over, decided that it was the wiser course to recuse himself and appoint a special prosecutor.

You could surmise that. But then you’d be pretty stupid. So let’s pass on that possibility.

Let’s consider two other possibilities, both of which assume this was triggered by on-going developments in the investigation.

One possibility is that the investigation has come up with more and more evidence and that has made it increasingly likely that there will be an indictment or at least some extensive grand jury proceedings. Because of that, it’s now no longer tenable for Ashcroft to remain in charge of the investigation, since it’s now clear that some serious wrong-doing occurred.

This seemed to be what Comey was getting at when he said: “It’s fair to say that an accumulation of facts throughout the course of the investigation over the last several months has led us to this point.”

But there’s another possibility: that is, that this decision isn’t the result of the general progress of the investigation or the accumulation of evidence, but something specific. Or more to the point, a specific person. And that something has just taken place.

Obviously these are general scenarios, which may, in reality, overlap quite a bit. But what strikes me about this announcement today was its timing. And the timing leads me to think the third scenario is the most likely.

Here’s why.

The other news developments from the administration on the Plame case have come at what you might call press-appropriate times. As in, late on Friday afternoons. Stuff like that — the times guaranteed to get you as little press notice as possible.

This was early afternoon on a Tuesday, albeit, yes, the day before New Year’s Eve. If this was just a matter of a slow accumulation of evidence, tomorrow afternoon would have been just as good, and would have gotten the story buried. Same goes for Friday.

Now a third point.

It’s always been more or less an open secret who the perps are in this case. And they’re very high-level folks — people with deep influence of the formulation and implementation of policy. And the wrong-doing here is directly related to the execution of policy. So if a crime was committed, and if an indictment is forthcoming, it will bring under scrutiny a whole complex range of wrong-doing (though not necessarily criminal wrongdoing) relating to administration war policy and intelligence manipulation and other stuff we can go into at a later date.

The Washington Post this evening has an article quoting “Republican legal sources who have discussed the case with the White House and the Justice Department” who say that this will give the administration cover and ‘depoliticize’ the case.

Not likely.

If the real perps are indicted, the political implications will be obvious and undeniable. And the fall-out will be rapid.