As we’ve been discussing for a week there’s a big argument among Democrats about the looming shutdown fight. Senate Democrats seem set on making it a negotiation about Obamacare subsidies, the biggest part of the BBB cuts that kick in before 2026. Meanwhile, you have a growing chorus of people who aren’t Senate Democrats saying this is wrong. It’s not time for small-bore policy revisions. You’ve got to do something dramatic to rein in Trump’s increasingly dictatorial rule. I also see Lakshya Jain and Matt Yglesias saying that yes, maybe it’s time for a confrontation. But if you’re going to have a confrontation, you need to make that stand on the issue where your issue advantage is the greatest. And that’s on the health care subsidies. And at least on the first part of that I absolutely agree. Tariffs are actually pretty salient too. But let’s set that aside for a moment. Because there’s an unspoken part of this equation that makes all the difference.
So let’s get that clear and on the table.
Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats are making it very clear they don’t want a shutdown. They may be willing to risk one, but they really want to avoid it. Their thinking is that Trump’s getting unpopular on his own and a shutdown gives him an opportunity to spread the blame. Suddenly the Democrats own part of everything going haywire. That is a big part of the reason for focusing so tightly on the Obamacare subsidies. Because there’s already a slice of Republicans who very much want to do the same thing. That’s mostly the endangered members in the House and to a degree in the Senate. The leadership and White House won’t say so of course but they’d probably like to kick those cuts past the 2026 midterms as well because they are almost as invested in those endangered members not losing their races as the members themselves are. Donald Trump personally is probably even more invested than some of them are.
The point is that the Democrats are focusing on this because they’re pretty close to a deal in advance. Indeed, John Thune is openly inviting Dems to “come forward with a solution”, which is code for Democrats saying in advance what cuts they’ll propose to pay for the subsidies or what future moments of power — like another CR fight — they’ll give up in advance in order to get the subsidies restored until the midterms are over. If the optimal plan is to force a confrontation on the most salient and Dem-leaning issue, then what Senate Democrats are planning is the exact opposite of that because they’re trying to avoid a confrontation.
And a confrontation isn’t just good in the abstract or the way to have some kind of blue-state catharsis. Without a big confrontation, it’s just a Senate sausage-making deal like every other continuing resolution negotiation. No one who’s not very plugged into politics and thoroughly committed in their politics will even know it happened. Most of the people who are going to be hit by those subsidy hits don’t even know about it yet. And if Democrats “win” this it will be as though it never happened at all. To think up-for-grabs voters who rely on Obamacare subsidies will hear about that lo-fi negotiation and think, “Wow, I’m stoked the Democrats got my subsidies renewed for six months so I don’t have to worry about this until after the midterms!” is comical and absurd. Democrats will get no credit for that because no one will know it happened. So that whole plan is one that does nothing for Obamacare recipients or for Democrats electorally or to help the country try to fight off an authoritarian takeover.
If the decision is that you make this fight over health care coverage, you’ve got to up the ante substantially. That means bringing back the Obamacare subsidies on a permanent basis and the Medicaid budgets that were cut as well. They’re both really really important. That is a real difference between the two parties — not one that amounts to a cryptic point of agreement. And it’s one that is likely to trigger a confrontation on a scale that might get most of the country to focus on the fight and to understand what it’s about. The “salience” of the issue doesn’t matter if no one knows you were fighting for it.
I’ve already made my argument for why you want to get in the authoritarian takeover issues too. But the truth is that government of, by and for Trump’s coterie of billionaires is as much a pocketbook issue as an ideological one. But if you want to draw the line on bringing back everyone’s health care, you need to do it like this, by pushing for everything. A lo-fi bit of horse trading to bring back the subsidies for six months only to cut them again after Democrats have no chance to do anything about it is bad on every front. And it’s very clear that that is the Schumer strategy. Avoid a confrontation, grab some short-term relief for Obamacare recipients and hope 2026 takes care of itself.
