Member Newsletter
I wrote a series of posts over the weekend about how to make sense, politically, strategically and even emotionally of the unfolding crisis of governance in DC. Here’s a piece about messaging and morale and another on Trump and Musk’s “shock and awe” strategies. After reading those posts, a number of TPM Readers have asked, okay, what are we supposed to do? Or what are our electeds supposed to do? I want to dig into this more later, but in this post I want to give as best a quick answer to that as I can.
We start with a piece in this morning’s Punchbowl which is simultaneously encouraging and gobsmackingly disheartening. The headline reads: Democrats ask: Why would we help Trump and the Republicans?. Most of you are probably thinking, you’re just getting to this question, guys? Well, they are. As they should, though it’s far more tentative than it should be. I suspect that’s about to change.
Let’s repeat the core fact. Republicans are in charge. As I explained here, the levers Democrats have over any of this are very limited. This is fundamentally a battle over public opinion, one in which the opposition needs to be making the case about the disastrousness of Trump’s policies. But there are levers. And they need to use them. Because even those tiny levers are key to that larger battle. Talk in itself is meaningless. Begging especially is meaningless. In fact, on its own it can be demoralizing — same old, same old, just performatively illustrating either the inability or unwillingness to act.
Right now in Washington, DC, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are dominating literally everything. That will start changing quickly, at least in a limited way, in the courts. But the overriding need is for Democrats to get a seat at the table. And they can do that in several ways. The biggest way is that Republicans will need help to pass a budget and raise the debt ceiling. The rubber starts meeting the road on that front next month. Real soon. You can talk as much as you want. But the White House and congressional Republicans absolutely need that help. And Democrats need to be crystal clear that the answer is absolutely no help — without meeting their conditions. That’s where you get the seat at the table.
What are the conditions? I’m still trying to figure out precisely what I’d do if I were calling the shots in the minority. But there are two fronts to think about: there are the immediate crisis issues and the overarching political arguments Democrats need to start making right now and continue making right through next year’s elections. Both are critical and they need to be wound together as a public message. But it’s important to think of them separately.
The crisis part of this is that Trump needs to stop breaking the law. The nonsense of trying to unilaterally shut down whole parts of the government, cancer research and everything else has to stop. The whole Musk operation. No more breaking federal laws. There’s a budget. The President can’t ignore the law. How to make that argument? Musk gave a bunch of kids access to your monthly Social Security check and all your financial data. They can stop anyone’s check at any time. That’s the central message. That has to stop. The larger political message is that Trump is taking away your health care and starting a trade war to jack up your prices all so that he and his billionaire friends can get huge tax cuts. Remember that the clearest poll data we’ve gotten since the inauguration is that “billionaire advisors” are super unpopular and Musk specifically is very unpopular. That’s the outline of the whole message. You’re about to lose a lot of stuff — your health care coverage and a bunch of money to inflation — so Elon and Trump and their pals can get a tax cut.
The next point is that you don’t just yank the brakes on the train to stop the train from going forward. You do it to show you have power. That gives some hope to your supporters. It also drives press coverage which is almost universally based on actions, things that change things and drive new facts that become new news. Seat at the table. Same difference. Nothing drives news like being able to drive new events. That’s critical.
The other point is one we’ve made before. All power is unitary. Democrats need that seat at the table. You do it with the most electric and unifying issue. That is almost certainly the tariffs and Musk’s spending freezes in the short-term and health care cuts in the medium term. But what about the simultaneous crises in deportations, or the shutdown of USAID, the illegal firing of federal workers, or all the other predations? I strongly believe that all that matters is what gets Democrats to the table. Power is unitary. What checks Trump’s currently untrammeled power is all that matters, whatever has the best shot at it. An increase in power on one front applies on every other front. Power on grinding the budget mechanisms and debt ceiling negotiations to a halt increases Democrats’ extremely limited power everywhere else. This is simply a cardinal point to understand about politics: all power is unitary. You don’t gain it or lose it in one place and leave it unaffected in another. That’s not how it works. This isn’t a panacea by any means. We’re heading into a withering storm. But those are unquestionably the most unifying points to focus on and the political power and momentum Democrats gain there will apply to every other issue as well.
So what should or can someone individually do? If Democrats are starting to ask, why should we help?, I would want to send the message that they absolutely shouldn’t. This isn’t a hard message. Get your hands off my parents’ Social Security checks and stop looking at their financial data. No help on anything until the law breaking stops. Period. No debt ceiling help. No budget help. And remember — Democrats can grind the Senate to a halt at any time by refusing unanimous consent to new business. No help on anything until the law breaking stops, and hands off the parents’ Social Security checks. Or yours. That’s a strong message.
(This post has been written quickly. I’ll try to sharpen some points later. But I wanted to get this post up quickly.)
Sometimes it’s not just about what wins. It’s also about losing well. A good loss emboldens your supporters rather than demoralizing them. As I tried to explain a couple days ago, fundamentally Democrats are now heading into a titanic battle over public opinion that will take months if not years. That’s what this will finally come down to. But this is, I’m pretty certain, where to start. No help until the law breaking stops and Musk’s toadies get their hands off everyone’s money. And if Republicans ignore the demand? Fine. No help. Good luck with your budget and the debt ceiling.
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