More bullet points on the midterms.
We have two premium national polls out overnight or this morning, ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ. Both have congressional generic ballot numbers which are, to my reading, too close for comfort. 8 points in the former, 7 points in the later. By normal standards, by democratic standards, those numbers would be enough for a blow-out win for the Democrats. But they probably need at least a five point advantage to have a shot at taking the majority.
On the other hand, we’ve seen some of the strongest numbers for Dems in the last couple days in individual swing districts. I’m thinking here particularly of the latest NYT/Siena polls. But not just those.
To be clear, those national polls do point to Democrats taking the House. But so much is at stake. It’s much too close for comfort. Too much is on the line.
