September 2, 2008 1:31 p.m.

With the proviso that tracking polls are very sketchy indicators of of where a race stands, today’s results from Gallup and Rasmussen appear to show a clear trend. Gallup has Obama moving to 50% for the first time ever, with an 8 point margin over John McCain (50% – 42%). Meanwhile, Rasmussen has Obama at 51% with a 6 point margin when ‘leaners’ are factored in (51%-45%).

I cannot stress too much that tracking polls are very volatile, susceptible both to statistical news and ephemeral wobbliness in candidate support.

But in line with a number of regular polls out in the last 24 hours, they show a clear trend. Obama’s bounce appears to be continuing and expanding during the RNC. And if you look closer at the numbers, the trend is not so much McCain losing support as a clear movement of hitherto undecideds into Obama’s column.

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