Tim Ryan

These are anxious days for the Democrats’ electoral prospects. But I wanted to focus your attention on the Senate race in Ohio. I still think JD Vance is the likely winner of this race simply because there appears to be a late Republican tide in this cycle and because Ohio is just a Republican state. If it’s basically tied you have to imagine it is more likely than not that the substantial number of undecided voters break in the GOP direction. But that said, it is remarkable how close this race remains. Even as other Senate races have seen sizable Democratic margins drop to tiny leads or tied races, this one really has barely budged. Just over the last 24 hours there are two premium polls out from Marist and Siena which have the race at Vance +1 and tied, respectively.