Again we see that, contrary to numerous press reports, the U.S. and Iran remain lightyears apart in their on-again, off-again negotiations to end their war. Iran’s demands, its response to Trump’s latest proposal, amount to a maximal package of winnings for a war Iran won: an end to the decades-long sanctions regime, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, reparations. It is true that antagonists can sometimes seem very, very far apart and then suddenly arrive at an agreement. But these two sides seem really, really far apart.
One key dynamic appears to be almost entirely what we might call a weather pattern inside Donald Trump’s brain, which is increasingly the only venue that matters in anything to do with policy in the United States. Trump really, really, really wants out of this conflict. I mean, really wants out. He’s made that super clear to everyone by his actions. That gives Iran the whip hand in every negotiation.
But though Trump really, really wants out, he is also unable to suck it up and do the things he’d need to do to get out. He keeps saying an agreement is super close. He’s trying to manifest an agreement into being. Then you have moments like yesterday when the disconnect between Trump Hype World and the real world break into view: they’re nowhere close. He wants out desperately. But the price of getting out, at least for the moment, would involve an abject humiliation and thus for him a kind of ego death. So he’s stuck. And therefore so is everyone else.
Many of us in the United States both see Trump’s situation more clearly and we care a lot more about it, inasmuch as Trump’s situation is the situation of the country, even if many of us understand that equation in inverse terms. That can make it hard for us to see just how bad a situation the Iranian government is in, with catastrophic levels of economic damage that will be very hard for the state to emerge from without severe challenges to its rule.
Still, the U.S. Intelligence Community is telling the White House that Iran can probably hold out for three or four more months. Can Trump hold out that long? Can he handle $5 gas in September? I’m really skeptical. Iran thinks it can hold out longer than Trump can and there’s a good chance they’re right, even if Trump’s calculus is an electoral one.
