The Hot Prez Race in Texas


From TPM Reader GJ

Regarding dumping money into non-competitive states, here in Dallas nearly every other commercial is an anti-Obama ad from the superPAC, “Restore our Future.” I’m trying to figure out why they’re dumping so much money into the Texas ad market when I’d assume Texas is about as solidly red as it gets. I have two theories:

1. It’s to build up GOP enthusiasm for down-ticket races.

2. They need to spend some of their donations on something other than lining their own pockets to help keep people from realizing they’re nothing but grifters who have been lining their own pockets with all that political donation money.

That, or they’re secretly scared that Romney could actually lose Texas. Since that seems crazy to me, I think it has to be either 1 or 2. I’m going with 2.

As I said, sometimes there are alternative explanations. Like maybe leveraging the tight race in Oklahoma? Probably not. Anyway, there are still other explanations. But it’s getting harder to find credible ones.

On the other hand there are cases like this one from TPM Reader CC where there’s at least some plausible, if tenuous, theories …

I agree with the assessment that Super PACs (probably the campaigns too) are dumping money because they have it and have nothing left to spend it on. Yesterday I saw multiple airings of ads by Crossroads and Restore our Future in the Buffalo media market. It does contain two PA counties, McKean and Potter, but they are small counties with only about 35,000 and 2-1 Republican enrollment. At the approximately $75,000 cost for 1000 points in the Buffalo market, that is some extremely inefficient spending.

One alternate theory to consider, the Buffalo media market is also home to one of the most competitive congressional races, the 27th. Perhaps they are dumping ads in markets in uncompetitive states but with competitive Congressional races to boost Romney in hopes of creating a trickle down effect on down ballot races.

Hitting a competitive House race does make a certain amount of sense. But then, why not run ads about that House race? Again, maybe because you have two days left and there’s no time to produce the ad? Hard to say. But I’m seeing too many reports like this — more of the Texas variety than the Buffalo one — to think a lot of money isn’t being basically tossed on the bonfire because these folks can’t think of anything else to do with it.

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