Still Tight in Florida

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Florida has moved back into the Toss-Up category on the TPM Electoral Scoreboard today. What’s happening? Not totally clear.

Three polls were released today. Probably the most respected is the Selzer/Bloomberg poll, a highly respected pollster whose polls have maybe leaned a bit more GOP than the average this year. The head to head number from Selzer is Trump 46%, Clinton 45%. Clinton has been pretty consistently ahead for about a month. That’s the first independent poll with a Trump lead since a Survey Monkey poll released a little more than a week ago.

But there were two other polls released today too. SurveyUSA shows Clinton +3. A poll from Florida Atlantic University also shows Clinton +3.

The most recent polls before that were on from UPI-CVoter at Clinton +2 and a Republican poll from Remington Research which showed a tie race. (The UPI poll is not included in our data set because of the duration of the polling period.)

Put that all together and the PollTracker Average (our trend estimate) shows Clinton +1.7, which places Florida in the Toss-Up category (any lead under 2 percentage points.) On balance, given the two other polls released today with Clinton +3, Selzer/Bloomberg looks like an outlier that is simply off the trend. But time will tell.

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