Steady As She Goes, Folks

November 5, 2020 11:00 a.m.

We just need to play this out. From what I can tell the numbers in Pennsylvania not only point to a Biden win but possibly a relatively comfortable one. If that is true Arizona and Nevada and Georgia don’t matter, though Biden now seems more likely than not to win all three. Again, this is just based on reviewing the analyses of the remaining votes from people I trust.

Georgia will be razor thin either way. Almost certainly in recount territory. But again, it probably won’t matter. More significant is that we now seem set to have two senate run-offs in Georgia. This opens at least a theoretical path to Democrats controlling the Senate in January. Likely? No. But if Biden does manage to win Georgia by the slenderest of margins, you simply can’t say it’s impossible. So that means a furious battle against two not terribly popular Senators in what is now at least a swingish state.

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