There were supposedly two takeaways from the 2012 election. First, the GOP had a difficult time polling the new American electorate, a shortcoming tied to the second takeaway, which was that the GOP was ill-prepared to win elections in the new American electorate which was more socially liberal and less white and, on both measures, getting more so. Basically all Democrats believed this, albeit somewhat self-servingly. Most independent analysts believed it because it seemed to be obvious. And a lot of Republicans seemed to believe it – especially those most focused on winning elections, which tends to mean party elites. But look where we are right now.
The GOP has just made its major legislative push of the year an entirely quixotic effort to ban late-term abortions across the country. American society remains basically divided on abortion with a solid majority of the country disliking it and yet not wanting it to be outlawed. So with their abortion push, the Republicans are not pushing something the country is overwhelmingly against. But it is a legislatively futile effort to relitigate the gender wars that have proven so damaging for Republicans in recent elections. Not surprisingly it has already generated more of the awkward to justifying comments about rape which Republicans have become so known for in the post-Akin era.
Then there’s immigration reform. Most people have assumed that Republicans would find a way to at least get out of the way of comprehensive immigration reform passing if not quite support it. And that seems to be basically the case in the Senate. But House Republicans are making increasingly clear they mean to kill it in the House. Top antis in the Senate, like Ted Cruz, are now openly conceding the fight in the Senate and holding out the House as their trump card. And John Boehner, at least for now, is saying he won’t even allow a vote on a reform bill unless the majority of Republicans support it (in other words, the so-called Hastert Rule).
Then finally there’s one other point that isn’t policy per se but goes to the same end point. In a number of states across the country, Republicans failed to get strong, mainstream candidates into key races and that’s defaulted the nominations to Tea Partiers and assorted crazies. Iowa is a good example. A classic swing state, certainly for a Senate race, that the in-party should really have to fight for in an open race. And yet Republicans are now apparently going to run a right-wing talk radio show host as their candidate. What should at least have been a solid pick-up opportunity now seems like a decent likelihood of a Democratic hold. Another example? Look at New Jersey.
There are various other examples of this trend. But the gist is that the GOP, based on the House of Representatives where it may well have a lock through 2020, has decided that there’s really nothing that needs fixing with the party’s emphasis on social conservatism and being the political party, overwhelmingly, of white people. Indeed, House Republicans are now increasingly vocal that all the stuff about an autopsy or rebuilding the party post-2012 was basically bunk.
