Campaigns have a way of not working by logical principles or, perhaps we should say, Newtonian physics. But I think Roger Simon has the gist of where the GOP primary campaign is right now. Namely, 1st, 2nd and 3rd are equally wins for Mitt Romney tomorrow night. And a Santorum surge doesn’t matter all that much. Why? Because there are only two candidates in the race who have the wherewithal to seriously challenge Romney over the long haul: Gingrich and Perry. If they’re losers tomorrow night, they’re probably done. And Rick Santorum just doesn’t have the money or the organization or the staying power outside a state like Iowa to seriously challenge Romney.
Like I said, I resist these deductive reasoning approaches to campaign analysis. There are always emergent properties we can’t quite predict. But this analysis is pretty hard to find fault with.
