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Let me share a few thoughts on tonight’s debate.
Needless to say, we will be providing live coverage of tonight’s debate and commentary and discussion afterwards. Depending on how everything shakes out, we may record a quick instapod version of The Josh Marshall Podcast Featuring Kate Riga to discuss our initial reactions.
In the old days, when we had two more or less professional politicians debating each other, the debates had a certain degree of predictability. There might be gaffes or gotcha moments. But the room for really big surprises was limited. That’s not where we are anymore. Now we have one candidate, Trump, who knows no bounds and will try to do everything he can to disrupt the proceedings or throw the other participants back on their heels. He brings his pro-wrestling mentality right onto the stage. Meanwhile, Democrats go into these affairs in spite of themselves terrified that Biden will have some gaffe or senior moment that will send his campaign into a terminal tailspin. Both of these factors together create a feeling of maximal unpredictability and tension — and moments like that are Donald Trump’s happy place.
I’m not judging. I feel that too. But I think we actually know going in mostly what will happen. We’ve seen Joe Biden in presidential debates, even with Donald Trump. We’ve seen him in successive State of the Union speeches, as recently as three months ago. He doesn’t knock your socks off but he’s basically fine. And it amounts to a bit more than fine given the ridiculously low expectations Republicans have themselves largely created. Sure, something wild and awful could happen. Anything’s possible. But I think we’ve been down this path enough times now to know this is more a matter of neurosis than prediction.
We know Donald Trump. He’ll be a freak: lying, interrupting, making up wild claims or dares he’ll mostly not get called on. And these two guys will both be up there on the stage for 90 minutes doing those two things at the same time. This contextual observation allows me to contain some of the drama and achieve some limited measure of inner calm.
I can only add two additional thoughts.
The first is that much of this debate will be a battle of Trump with himself. He’ll be a swaggering predatory freak. Most people don’t see that a lot, especially people who don’t follow politics very closely and whose votes will be the deciding factor in the election. So, do his antics remind people of what a freak he is? Or does he manage to use his disruptive powers to create some shiny object or embarrassing moment that somehow helps him or hurts Biden despite acting like a predatory freak? That’s largely something that will go on within Trump himself. Again, Trump v. Trump.
Many Republicans are saying that Trump is in the driver’s seat. So unlike in 2020 he doesn’t have to rumble. He can just talk policy, hit Biden’s failures in a matter-of-fact way and move on. He doesn’t need a win because he’s already ahead. This is a pipe dream. Donald Trump is wholly incapable of being that person. We know this. All evidence suggests he’s even more feral and disinhibited now than he was eight and four years ago. He has his felony convictions, his 2020 loss, January 6th, things he’s reactively bound up with in ways he never was about other issues in the past. He’ll be a freak and I think it will hurt him. The question is how much and whether the damage will be lasting or ephemeral.
Meanwhile there are several key points that Biden will have a unique and perhaps singular opportunity to make, ones that have been muddled in the campaign to date. The first and most singular is about abortion rights. Trump took away the right to an abortion and he wants to appoint more judges that will take away more rights. Despite his claims, he wants a national abortion ban. Trump wants to slap big tariffs on everything and that will be like an inflation bomb in the center of the U.S. economy. This extremely consequential and clear policy ambition has gotten close to no discussion outside policy nerd discourse. Trump used violence to attempt to overthrow the last election and he thinks members of the mob he riled up to send against the U.S. capitol are heroes. He says he wants to pardon them.
I believe a key to Biden’s success in this debate will be planting those flags clearly and convincingly and then having Trump respond. With other candidates, there might be a question of forcing them to respond. This is different. Of course Trump will respond. He can’t not be himself. Debates tend not to matter that much in themselves. The devastating single moments partisans like to point to don’t tend to be all that important. But they can be a big deal in pushing certain questions to the forefront of the subsequent campaign narrative. Particularly when one candidate doesn’t have particularly good answers to them.
Relatedly, we should always remember that campaigns seldom turn on changing the public’s opinions about big policy questions and issues — abortion, Jan. 6, the border, the economy. You win or lose by your ability to raise the salience of the issues that work for you in voters’ decision-making process. A border, economy election — that’s Trump’s election. Abortion, democracy, rights — that’s Biden’s. The gotcha one-liners will come and go. What affects that question of issue salience is what counts.