WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 17: White House Border Czar Tom Homan talks with reporters on the driveway outside the West Wing on March 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. Homan defended President Donald Trump's use of the Alien En... WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 17: White House Border Czar Tom Homan talks with reporters on the driveway outside the West Wing on March 17, 2025 in Washington, DC. Homan defended President Donald Trump's use of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to send Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador over the weekend even after a federal judge had ordered that the planes reverse course and return the detainees to the United States. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) MORE LESS

We went into this administration with a seemingly durable baseline assumption that, whatever his unpopularity in other areas, President Trump had durable if not overwhelming support for his hardline immigration policies. But something started to show up in polls in the late spring or early summer.

While his numbers on “immigration” were still reasonably robust, we saw a dramatically different picture when pollster’s asked about “deportation” or Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids. Not surprisingly, “immigration” is a very big word and covers a vast range of policy territory. Looked at from a different vantage point, Trump retained a bare majority of public support on “border security” but his “deportation” policy had the support of barely one-third of the population.

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