Immigration has been roiling American politics for years. Anti-immigration politicking foreshadowed the Tea Party movement late in the Bush administration and eventually cut a rift through the Republican party. And reform advocates managed to mount a huge rally in favor of reform — though to very little press attention — on the same weekend Health Care Reform finally passed Congress. But as a potential key driver of electoral politics in 2010, it was almost off the map (aside from the meta-message behind birtherism) until bursting into view, almost out of the blue, over the last few two weeks.
Democrats see that their numbers in Congress will be reduced in the next Congress, quite possibly dramatically so, with a move into the minority in at least the House a distinct possibility. So whatever Democrats want to do in Obama’s first term has to be done over the next six months. Then add two interrelated political factors.
One is that pushing immigration reform could provide a big boost to at least three struggling Senate Democrats — Reid, Boxer and Bennett. Equally so, immigration reform is a treacherous and even lethal issue for Republicans. It splits the party down the middle and energizes the Tea Partyish, xenophobic wing of the party that is difficult and often impossible for the establishment wing of the party to control.
Put that all together and Democrats have strong policy and political reasons to push immigration reform to the top of the legislative agenda. And then on top of all that add the match provided by the outrageous and almost certainly unconstitutional law passed and signed in Arizona and the November election could be very different from what we’d envisioned only a few weeks ago.
