9:46 PM: Okay, we’re at a quarter to 10 and Democrat Hochul appears to be holding a and solid lead, but now with a little tightening. With 57% of the vote in, Hochul has a 4 point spread.
9:49 PM: Looking at the details, note Monroe County. The Republicans came closest to losing this district in 2006. That year they won Monroe by 57%. As of this moment Corwin is winning by only 2 points. And that county is reporting ahead of the curve.
9:51 PM: Livingston County is looking pretty much the same. When the Republican barely held on (52-48) in 2006, the GOP had it 60% to 40%. Tonight Corwin is only winning it by 4 points. That looks fatal for the Corwin. Basically Corwin is only barely holding on in what should be strong Republican counties.
9:54 PM: District-wide, we now have 61% reporting and a stable 5 point spread for Hochul (D) … Now 63% in, same margin.
9:59 PM: Given the totals already in and the margins in key counties, I’d be surprised if this isn’t called fairly soon.
10:01 PM: 71% reporting, Hochul up by 6 points. The headline tomorrow is likely to be that Hochul matched the Dem’s losing margin in 2006, 48%. But that was a historic blowout year for the Dems. And frankly, not at all clear to me that Davis’s voters would have broken clearly in Corwin’s direction if he’d dropped out.
