This post at Axios gives us the benefit of Barak Ravid’s reporting on the state of the U.S.-Iran negotiations. His sources suggest that the core hold up was the Iranian nuclear program, with the U.S. insisting on a 20 year moratorium on uranium production and the Iranians countering with something in the single digits. Note that this isn’t that different from what President Obama got with the JCPOA — a longterm but by no means permanent cessation. There’s also no mention in the Ravid piece about the Strait of Hormuz or the sanctions regime. Perhaps I’m wrong in what I noted here and the demand for sanctions relief is merely a bluff. But other reports say that Hormuz was in fact a major stumbling block, as one would expect. While I don’t question Ravid’s reporting as such, this article in the Times, I believe, captures the dynamic more precisely: Iran and the U.S. are now moving into a battle of economic privation, testing which player can endure more economic pain.
As we’ve discussed in earlier posts, it’s no comparison in absolute terms. Iran’s economic pain — from sanctions, capital asset destruction and blockade — is infinitely greater than anything the U.S. is or will experience. But that’s not the question. The Iranian regime is in a battle for its life. To stay alive it will endure a lot of pain. The U.S. isn’t. It’s only the core of the MAGA movement and it elected officials who are in perhaps a vaguely similar position. But in Trump’s case holding out directly threatens his power and his political movement’s survival. How long can Trump hold out as the battle of wills adds anvil after anvil to the already foundering ship of the GOP’s midterm hopes?
