We’re going to look at the details tomorrow. But there’s a key point to keep in mind as the GOP nomination process leaves Michigan tonight. New Hampshire is a big state for independents. And they have open primaries. So it was tailor made for McCain and he won it. Michigan too has an open primary, though, and he couldn’t make it happen tonight. This, you’ll remember, is a state he did win in 2000 with a lot of independent and crossover Democratic voters.
The key is that going forward there are a lot fewer states with open primaries, at least on the Republican side. So if McCain is going to remain in contention for the nomination he’ll have to start winning those primaries among Republican voters. And so far he’s shown very little ability to do that. In New Hampshire Romney actually edged out McCain by 1% among registered Republicans. Today in Michigan he whipped him by 14% among registered Republicans.
Before tonight there was enough momentum brewing in McCain’s direction that the party might have coalesced behind him enough to get him over that hurdle. But without that collective agreement to get the nomination process done with, the Republican primaries are about to become a much steeper hill for McCain to climb.
