Remember, we’ll have live election results for you here at TPM tonight, the last major set of primaries of the 2010 cycle. The first polls close at 7 PM in New Hampshire. There are three races I’m going to be watching closely: two of which could matter a lot in November, the one probably won’t but is just fun anyway.
See the three races I’ll be watching after the jump …
First there’s the New Hampshire Republican senate. Here you’ve got the establishment Republican Kelly Ayotte in the lead but she’s facing a late surge from longtime NH winger Ovide Lamontagne, who should probably win on the basis of name alone. Ayotte’s clearly the favorite. But Lamontagne’s been moving in the polls and is down to single digits. Dems are pushing heavily for late Ovidementum. Polls close there at 7 PM.
Then you’ve got the Castle-O’Donnell race in the Delaware Republican senate primary. Castle’s your salt of the earth moderate Republican who’s been in office since like the 19th century. O’Donnell is apparently so whacky that even a lot of the crazier folks in her party are treating her as beyond the pale. The polls says it’s basically neck n’ neck. O’Donnell clearly has the momentum — and the late blessing with Palin holy water. So it’s going to come down to whether electability is a driver for state Republicans. Polls close there at 8 PM.
Finally you’ve got the Republican Governor’s primary in New York. Polls close here in the Empire State at 9pm. Here you’ve got former Rep. Rick Lazio on track for a rendezvous with ignominy. Amazingly, it’s looking like Rick Lazio might actually get beat on Tuesday by Carl Paladino. And a bit of context is required to understand the significance of this. Paladino is quite a piece of work. He’s a way, way out their Tea Partier. And among other highlights he got caught back in April circulating a bunch of rank racist and sexually graphic emails featuring among other things images of hardcore bestiality. So he comes in with some baggage, to put it mildly.
But the thing is, Lazio has squandered probably whatever dignity he had remaining after getting crushed by Hillary Clinton in 2000. In response to Paladino’s aggressive demagoguing of the Park51 (“Ground Zero Mosque”) controversy, Lazio’s tried to outdo him, releasing a grotesque anti-mosque ad, calling on probable Democratic nominee Andrew Cuomo to launch an investigation of the project and even challenging Cuomo to a special mosque-only debate.
Back when he was in Congress, Lazio was supposed to be a moderate-ish downstate GOPer. But consider that wad shot. And for all that, it looks like he could very well lose.
Here’s the poll trendline for the race.
On Saturday Siena came out with a poll showing Lazio with a 43-42 lead over Paladino. In other words, essentially a tie. And here’s the trend from Siena back to June.
6/9/10 Lazio 45%, Paladino 18%
7/12/10 Lazio 40%, Paladino 20%
8/16/10 Lazio 43%, Paladino 30%
9/11/10 Lazio 43%, Paladino 42%
That’s a really bad trend for Lazio.
Add another detail to the mix. Probable Democratic nominee, bad year notwithstanding, looks set to crush whichever Republican gets the nomination. And that takes away from Lazio what should be his trump card: electability. Any Republican who’s watching this race closely knows that both Lazio and Paladino appear to be very long shots for election against Cuomo. So if electability isn’t an issue, why not make a statement? And go for the genuine Crazy ™ instead of the downstate moderate who’s trying to change his spots to suit the times?
