As some of you know I keep an eye on the political futures markets at And I’ve been wondering whether they’d open a contract on whether Sarah Palin would make it to November, let alone the White House. And sure enough, here it is. Still a long shot at 15% odds of it happening. But up 12 points so far today.

For what it’s worth, even though I hinted that I thought we might be going there over the weekend, we should not underestimate the massive forces standing in the way of canning Palin.

The consequences of what I think everyone can now see was a bad decision are huge. The consequences of admitting it was a mistake are something like catastrophic. Much of the remainder of the campaign, I think, would devolve into a picking over of just what McCain was thinking. So while McCain’s strategy is based on running on his purportedly superior judgment, much of the campaign coverage would focus on his demonstrably bad judgment.

Also, a very big deal, though not quite as big, would be the effect on conservative evangelicals. Putting Palin on the ticket seems to have finally brought many of them squarely into the McCain camp. Tossing her overboard could be lethal with this critical Republican constituency.

They’re in a tight spot.

Late Update: 8:54 AM … Now it’s at 18.

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