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Into the Rabbit Hole of Probabilities

Sadie Janes shows off her voting sticker after casting her ballot at Floyd Middle Magnet School during the Democratic presidential primary in Montgomery, Alabama on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020. - Fourteen states and... Sadie Janes shows off her voting sticker after casting her ballot at Floyd Middle Magnet School during the Democratic presidential primary in Montgomery, Alabama on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020. - Fourteen states and American Samoa are holding presidential primary elections, with over 1400 delegates at stake. Americans vote Tuesday in primaries that play a major role in who will challenge Donald Trump for the presidency, a day after key endorsements dramatically boosted Joe Biden's hopes against surging leftist Bernie Sanders. The backing of Biden by three of his ex-rivals marked an unprecedented turn in a fractured, often bitter campaign. (Photo by Joshua Lott / AFP) (Photo by JOSHUA LOTT/AFP via Getty Images) MORE LESS
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August 24, 2022 11:49 a.m.

TPM Reader DD says I’m not seeing the forest for the trees about Democratic prospects in the House. From DD

Reader reaction with some thoughtful nuance about Dem chances on holding the House

The recent upswing for Democrats across several metrics has folks, including yourself, feeling hopeful that Democrats could somehow maintain control of the House. Now I know you’ve said it’s still a long shot and unlikely but I think that long shot misses the forest for the trees (or actually the trees for the forest).

At the macro level there are plenty of reasons to maintain that hope, and the rising, and real, fortunes of Senate Democrats seem to color that perspective. But with the House it’s a matter of math and race-by-race dynamics. By those measures the House is all but gone for Democrats, although the losses may be low enough that they’re in the hunt to reclaim the majority in 2024.

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