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I had been planning to write a post today about a shift in the news coming out of Israel-Palestine and a shift in attitudes among the various countries which have been supporting Israel’s war effort, either openly or tacitly. But as I thought about it, the connections I intended to draw were too tenuous or perhaps too premature to really sustain the argument. Instead, I’m just going to share an anecdote and a quote which capture one element of this shift.
First, a bit of stage setting.
As I’ve argued in earlier posts, there are two overlapping but very distinct stories unfolding within Israel. Israel’s devastating onslaught in Gaza in retaliation for the October 7th massacres has broad, really overwhelming support within Israel. But it’s being led by a prime minister whose personal credibility and political standing were shattered by the massacres that triggered the war. As the intensity of the fighting has decreased, this contradiction comes more and more to the fore. As “day after” questions become more urgent, he is more openly toadying to the demands of the settler extremists who keep him in power even as they propose horrific new policies which at best complicate Israel’s position with its top allies and the Arab countries it still seeks to conclude peace deals with.
As this drags on, from more and more directions we see the circle of support around Israel under Netanyahu tightening. Netanyahu’s own personal legal vulnerability at home is increasing. A judge just ruled that hearings in his corruption trial can expand to three days a week. He can’t stop it forever because of the war. Mass protests against him, which were called off after October 7th, are starting to resurface. Much of the world is against Israel in this conflict, for a mix of good and bad reasons. But now Israel’s defenders are increasingly losing patience with Netanyahu — particularly the United States but not only the United States. The shift that is most interesting to me comes from Israel’s de facto allies in the Gulf. These aren’t formal allies of course. Israel still has no formal diplomatic relations at all with Saudi Arabia. But each has what amounts to a robust strategic alliance with Israel. They’re probably happy to see the IDF destroy Hamas. But even they have limits.
Just as Israel is ramping down the intensity of the fighting in the southern Gaza Strip, the crazies in Netanyahu’s coalition are further isolating Israel by mouthing off about encouraging “voluntary” migration out of Gaza. It’s a self-inflicted wound for Israel that is 100% about Netanyahu’s need to remain in power. And Israel’s international defenders are increasingly focusing on that.
Netanyahu is the prime ministerial equivalent of Wile E. Coyote. He can keep running indefinitely — until he looks down. Then he plummets. But as much as the water rises around him, there’s still no mechanism to bring him down. The truth is he could keep running for a long time.
Here are the two nuggets I wanted to share with you. They don’t amount to that much in themselves. But they’re indicative of something broader.
According to Barak Ravid of Axios and Walla News, Netanyahu recently appealed to the United Arab Emirates to see if they would foot the bill for unemployment benefits for West Bank Palestinians currently barred from entering Israel to work. Emirati President Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed (MBZ) basically told him to f*#% off. “Ask Zelensky for the money,” he said sarcastically, according to Ravid’s sources.
This back and forth requires some unpacking.
Netanyahu’s most defining characteristic isn’t that he’s a hawk, or an authoritarian nationalist. He’s an extemporizer. His policy agenda has always been no to a Palestinian state and yes to more settlements. But the real throughline is playing for time.
Nowhere is this more evident than in his de facto, tacit alliance with Hamas, which you’ve certainly read about since October. Netanyahu fought a series of small wars with Hamas. But he never wanted to solve the problem of Hamas. He wanted “quiet.” The money that Hamas used to build its military capacity and tunnel complex came more or less openly from Qatar, with Israel’s tacit approval. That money was meant to buy “quiet.” The Qatari money also made Hamas independent of the Palestinian Authority. That served the key policy goal: no unified Palestinian state. It didn’t.
This ask to the UAE is basically a version of the same story. The specifics are very different. But, big picture, the same story.
After October 7th, Israel barred roughly 100,000 Palestinian workers from Israel. That was understandable in the short term. But the U.S., the IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel’s domestic intelligence service) all say that this policy is now creating discontent and instability in the West Bank that is threatening Israel itself. But since those far-right ministers in Netanyahu’s government don’t want to relax those restrictions, Netanyahu won’t even bring the question to a vote in his cabinet. Again, he needs to keep them happy because that keeps him in power and, probably, out of jail. So what did he do? He reached out to the UAE and asked if they could send the money.
Do you see what I mean by the constant stealing from Peter to pay Paul? Stiff the U.S., toady to the Smotrich and Ben Gvir and think the UAE richies of all people will fund the high wire act for him?
Here’s Ravid’s reporting …
Netanyahu turned to MBZ a few weeks ago and broadly asked for help in regards to the Palestinians, the Israeli official and source with knowledge of the issue said … MBZ said he was ready to help, but when Netanyahu specifically asked if the UAE would be willing to pay the Palestinian workers, the Emirati president was stunned, the source with knowledge said.
They were willing to help — help the Palestinians, help Israel navigate the regional crisis, help the West Bank from exploding. But they weren’t willing to foot the bill for decisions Netanyahu was making simply to avoid confronting members of his own government.
Biden recently had a similar set-to with him. While refusing to accede to U.S. demands, Netanyahu pled to Biden that he couldn’t afford to offend the members of his coalition. Biden went off pointing out that Biden has all but spurred a civil war in the Democratic Party with his steadfast support for Israel. You can almost hear an exasperated Biden guffawing “C’mon, Man!” Biden reportedly hung up on him.
It’s all extemporization. Netanyahu also wants the Gulf states to fund rebuilding Gaza. And they’d probably be willing to do that. But they’ve made crystal clear that they’re not going to do it as long as Israel is refusing even to allow some limited version of self-government in Gaza, let alone a pathway towards a two state solution.
The Saudi Foreign Minister, Khalid bin Bander, made a similar point today to the BBC: “The problem that we have today with the current government in Israel is there is an extreme, absolutist perspective which does not work to achieve compromise, and therefore you are never going to end the conflict”
The Gulf states, aside from Qatar, are, for good reasons and bad, probably more supportive of Israel’s current war than many countries around the world that aren’t Arab or Muslim or in any geographic proximity to the conflict. They are certainly more supportive than Israel’s critics in the United States. But they are increasingly out of patience with an Israeli government which wants to have its cake and eat it too, have diplomatic and economic relations with the wealthiest Arab states but not even make the most limited moves to ameliorate the occupation, let alone end it.
I see a range of shifts since the beginning of January that make me think Netanyahu’s hold is starting to loosen. But who knows? He’ll keep it up until someone pulls the plug.