Exits: Been There, Done That

April 22, 2008 5:53 p.m.

As you may have noticed Drudge has up what he says are 5 PM exit poll numbers showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%. I suspect they are ‘accurate’ as far as early, un-weighted exits can be. But let me point out that my recollection is that pretty much all the early and unweighted exits we’ve seen this cycle have turned out to be wrong. And often very wrong. So this has to be taken with a real grain of salt. And that’s assuming they’re not made up entirely.

Late Update: Jim Geraghty at NRO has Obama 52%, Clinton 47%.

And to be clear, when I say take them with a grain of salt, I don’t mean that in the garden variety, being responsible, ‘we don’t know for sure yet’ kind of way. I really mean that these early unweighted numbers have routinely been way, way off.

Later Update
: Brendan Loy looked at some earlier states and seems to have confirmed what was my recollection that the early exits have not only routinely been wrong but they’ve routinely been wrong in Obama’s favor.

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