Election Data

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October 25, 2018 6:59 p.m.

Yesterday I explained that the media narrative about a GOP comeback in the midterms has very little backing in any hard data that is available. That’s basically still the case. There’s been a bit more wobbliness in the polling numbers than I’d like to see in the last 24 hours. But that still basically applies.

But there’s another side of the story. While this is happening you’re also seeing the GOP parachute big ad buys into a number of races that had seemed pretty solid for Republicans only a few weeks ago. Cam Joseph has a rundown here of some of those late breaking battlegrounds. Interestingly, one of those is Karen Handel, in Georgia’s 6th district, the one who won that big special election back in early 2017.

Also of interest. This afternoon the Cook Political report released a big House battleground poll which includes a lot of interesting information. This is more of a deep dive on the battle for the House rather than the absolutely most recent numbers. It was conducted October 10th-19th. But lots of interesting data. Here’s the results memo.

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