Let’s go back to Wisconsin after the April 7th in-person election. We have a couple more days of data since we discussed this last. Did it lead to a bump in COVID19 infections?
Let me show you the data with first a seven day and then a three day moving average.
The seven day moving average certainly seems to show some shift in the trend about a week after election day, which is about when you’d expect people to have enough time to become symptomatic and get tested.
In the nature of things, the three day moving average is bumpier.
I’m not a statistician. I’m really not in a position to say whether this demonstrates a bump in infections. I’ll leave that to readers with relevant knowledge. My sense is that it suggests a bump without definitively showing it. We’d have to look more closely and rule out alternative explanations or whether just random fluctuations could account for it.
