COVID19 and the Wisconsin Election

|
April 23, 2020 1:50 p.m.

Let’s go back to Wisconsin after the April 7th in-person election. We have a couple more days of data since we discussed this last. Did it lead to a bump in COVID19 infections?

Let me show you the data with first a seven day and then a three day moving average.

The seven day moving average certainly seems to show some shift in the trend about a week after election day, which is about when you’d expect people to have enough time to become symptomatic and get tested.

In the nature of things, the three day moving average is bumpier.

I’m not a statistician. I’m really not in a position to say whether this demonstrates a bump in infections. I’ll leave that to readers with relevant knowledge. My sense is that it suggests a bump without definitively showing it. We’d have to look more closely and rule out alternative explanations or whether just random fluctuations could account for it.

Introducing
The TPM Journalism Fund: A New Way To Support TPM
We're launching the TPM Journalism Fund as an additional way for readers and members to support TPM. Every dollar contributed goes toward:
  • -Hiring More Journalists
  • -Providing free memberships to those who cannot afford them
  • -Supporting independent, non-corporate journalism
Are you experiencing financial hardship?
Apply for a free community-supported membership
advertisement
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Senior Editor:
Special Projects Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Publishing Associate:
Front-End Developer:
Senior Designer:
SPECIAL DEAL FOR PAST TPM MEMBERS
40% OFF AN ANNUAL PRIME MEMBERSHIP
REJOIN FOR JUST $30