It’s been very difficult to get clear polling data. But Iran is holding a presidential election on Friday and it seems clear at least that the main challenger, reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, is riding a surge of support that is building on dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad’s rule. Whether he can beat him is an open question — the quality of the polls in Iran are iffy and they’re contradictory at the moment. But it seems at least likely that he can force Ahmadinejad into a run-off later this month.
Needless to say, a defeat for Iranian hardliners, at the present moment, could have repercussions throughout the region.
Could be a very big deal.
Part of what’s churned things up so much over the last couple weeks has been Ahmadinejad’s particularly scathing attacks on Mousavi, his wife and unnamed people in the Iranian establishment. That prompted Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, himself a former president, to write an open letter criticizing the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for not reining Ahmadinejad or criticizing his behavior. To further add to the mix, Ahmadinejad beat Rafsanjani when he was elected the first time. And Rafsanjani, in turn, is the head of something called the Assembly of Experts which could, in theory, unseat Khamenei, though I don’t think anyone sees that as at all likely.
The factional infighting within Iran is notoriously difficult to follow and has an ability to make fools of all but those with the most expertise on the country, and sometimes even them. It’s also important to note that people who are fundamentally at odds with the country’s system of government simply aren’t allowed to run for office at all. Still, there are signs of give in the system and dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad, which could reshuffle what is in the realm of the possible in capitals around the region and even around the world.
